A new era is underway in the Russia-Ukraine war. Since the phone callbetween US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin and the outspoken differences between the US and the Europeans at the Munich Security Conference, hectic diplomatic activity is afoot.
The Europeans and Ukraine itself attempt to reposition themselves. This bid to stay in the limelight was among the reasons Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Turkey this week. Although Turkey is not invited to the negotiating table with the US and Russia, its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still aiming to play an important role in future peace negotiations with Russia, and in building new security architecture.
During the Russia-Ukraine war, Turkey has always tried to keep diplomatic channels open to both sides while maintaining good relations with Moscow and Kyiv. Erdogan now seeks to maintain this policy.
He underscored this during Zelenskyy’s visit to Ankara. Erdogan declared that Turkey would do its best to help conclude the negotiation process with a lasting peace.
He also put his country forward as an “ideal host for possible talks between Russia, Ukraine and the USA,” arguing that Turkey is seen as a “reliable mediator” by both sides. However, whether this offer will be accepted is far from certain.
Turkey suddenly out in the cold
Helin Sari Ertem, a political scientist at Istanbul’s Medeniyet University, said that Turkey, as an emerging regional power, has long aspired to play a mediating role in this conflict. But according to her, Turkey’s efforts have faltered.
“Turkey ― like the EU countries ― has felt left out since the US-Russian summit in Saudi Arabia,” she said, adding that if the US wants Turkish involvement in the future, it would be ready to assume the role.
During the war, Turkey was involved in setting up the so-called “grain corridor” in the Black Sea, which secured the export of important food supplies from Ukraine to the rest of the world.
Fatih Ceylan, Turkey’s former ambassador to NATO, pointed out that Turkey was also involved in mediation efforts in Antalya and Istanbul in the early months of the conflict.
However, the US excluding Europe has put all of Ukraine’s European partners in a difficult position ― and also Turkey.
“As long as it is not clear what plan will be presented, it is not possible to make a solid commitment of support,” Ceylan said.
He stressed that the current rift between the US and Europe on security, economic and trade issues is also likely to have repercussions for Turkey.
“If anyone thinks they can stay out of the situation, I think that’s an illusion,” said Ceylan, adding that contracting European economies during a trade spat would inevitably have knock-on effects for Turkey’s trade balance.
Will Turkey be part of the security guarantees for Ukraine?
At the press conference with Erdogan, Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of wide-ranging security guarantees for Ukraine. Talking to journalists shortly before his departure from Ankara, Zelenskyy repeated this demand.
“If it is not NATO, who will be able to give us guarantees?,” Zelenskyy asked. “We have also spoken to President Erdogan about possible security guarantees from strong countries with strong armies, including Turkey.”
Ceylan pointed out that unanswered questions linger.
“It’s not enough to say: ‘I’m sending troops!’ This must be determined either through multilateral negotiations, in which Europe and Turkey are also involved, or through the UN Security Council,” Ceylan said. “In other words, the bilateral negotiations between the US and Russia must first be moved to a multilateral framework.”
In such a scenario, Ceylan said, Turkey could also have an important role to play.
Ertem, from Istanbul’s Medeniyet University, also said that Turkey, like the other European countries, could be “pushed” into military peacekeeping in eastern Ukraine and may be more willing to get involved than many EU countries.
What is the importance of the Black Sea?
Erdogan sees a new regulation on maritime safety in the Black Sea ahead of the talks as a potential way to build confidence for the peace process. Ceylan noted that if Russia retains the territories conquered in Ukraine after the peace talks, the importance of the Black Sea would take on a new dimension. In this case, the safety of shipping in the Black Sea would have to be re-examined. As a result, it may become inevitable that Turkey is among the countries providing security guarantees.
If there are rapid developments in the peace process in the future, the safety of the Black Sea, especially for the passage of ships for trade, will be a key issue.
Ertem explained mines put in the Black Sea near the coasts of Ukraine and Russia during the war pose a danger to ships. This trade is of economic importance to Turkey and its Black Sea neighbors. An agreement was signed between Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey to clear these mines.
“Since the US-Russia talks in Riyadh, we have seen that the main item on the agenda is to ensure peace within Ukraine,” Ertem said. “But it’s not just about securing peace within the Ukrainian territories. Peace in the Black Sea must also be secured. I think this will be the point that Turkey will emphasize.”
This article originally appeared in Turkish and was adapted from German.
