Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to visit Saudi Arabia next week for a planned meeting there between delegates from Ukraine and the US.
If all goes according to plan, it will be the first Ukraine-US meeting since the presidents of the two countries quarreled in the White House on February 28.
At those talks, US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance accused Zelenskyy of being ungrateful for the US aid given to Ukraine and of being unwilling to end the war in his country. After the Oval Office catastrophe, Zelenskyy cut his US trip short and left Washington.
No new meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump is to be held in Riyadh.
Zelenskyy’s trip to Riyadh is one that was previously postponed. He had wanted to travel to Saudi Arabia in February but canceled at short notice when it was announced that a Russian and a US delegation would meet there on February 18.
“Decisions on how to end the war in Ukraine cannot be made without Ukraine, nor can any conditions be imposed,” Zelenskyy said at the time. “We were not invited to this Russian-American meeting in Saudi Arabia. It was a surprise for us, I think for many others as well.”
Now, ahead of his planned visit to Saudi Arabia, he has announced on the messaging app Telegram that he is planning a meeting with the de facto Saudi ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, adding: “Ukraine is most interested in peace. As we told President Trump, Ukraine is working and will work exclusively constructively for a quick and reliable peace.”
Recently it was also announced that Saudi Arabia is to become the first country that Trump will visit in his second term in office. Trump said this would happen within the next six weeks.
Why Saudi Arabia?
Ivan Us from the Ukrainian National Institute for Strategic Studies believes there is a very specific reason why Saudi Arabia is being involved in the Ukraine talks.
“That has to do with the negotiations between the US and Saudi Arabia. And the statements that Saudi Arabia is to invest a billion dollars in the American economy. To bring this about, the US is upvaluing Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical importance,” he told DW.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, for his part, has declared himself willing to come to Riyadh to demonstrate his willingness to talk with the US, something his European partners had urgently asked him to do, according to Us.
“This meeting is meant to confirm that a dialogue is going on, and it is also a signal to the European partner that he wants to deescalate, not escalate, the conflict,” Us said.
The Ukraine-US meeting in Saudi Arabia will be of a fairly technical nature but is important for understanding further steps by the US with regards to Ukraine, says Olexiy Haran from the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.
“This will not be the last stage toward preparing the signing of some document or other. For Ukraine, it is now mostly a matter of understanding what Trump wants of it,” Haran said.
“While the US demands concessions of Ukraine, Russia has not made any,” Haran said, noting sadly that Russia was incessantly bombing Ukrainian cities and advancing at the front.
Minerals deal as first step to peace agreement
Observers do not rule out that an agreement giving the US access to so-called rare earths in Ukraine could be on the negotiating table in Saudi Arabia. Such a deal was to be signed at the White House on the day the altercation between Zelenskyy and Trump occurred. Zelenskyy already signaled there that Kyiv was still ready to sign an agreement of this nature.
Without this agreement, it is unlikely that the US will continue a dialogue on a future peace agreement, says Oleksandr Kraiev from the analysis center Ukrainian Prism, which specializes in foreign policy and international security.
He believes that Ukraine intends to reach agreement on this deal during the meeting in Saudi Arabia, at least at adviser level.
“Without this deal, we will not make progress. Even if the Americans don’t want to include security guarantees or a full-fledged political component in it, it will ensure that the Trump administration will be ready to have further talks,” Kraiev said. According to him, it is a chance for Ukraine to show itself from its best side so that it can negotiate better political conditions.
Possible territorial concessions
Experts also say that the US could possibly put pressure on Ukraine to make territorial concessions, although Kyiv has not shown itself to be ready to do so up to now.
“The so-called concessions — the issue of regions, a recognition of the annexation and all complex issues — will very likely be left out of these preliminary negotiations and only be discussed in direct contact with Moscow. First of all, a lowest common denominator has to be found that is as small as possible so that both sides can accept it,” said Kraiev.
This article was adapted from German.
