Looming trade wars with China and Europe, tariff disputes with neighbors Canada and Mexico, the war in Gaza, plummeting stock markets, and protests against mass layoffs: US President Donald Trump is currently fighting on many (partly home-made) fronts at the same time.
Amid these crises, there is another question. Will the US let Ukraine fall? It seems only a matter of time before it is answered with a “yes.”
After a number of unsuccessful attempts to impose a temporary ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow, there are many factors that seem to point towards this menacing scenario.
Trump: Ukraine ‘may not survive’
Trump recently addressed the issue himself. In an interview with the US broadcaster Fox News after an altercation with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on February 27, the US president was asked by the anchor Maria Bartiromo whether he was “comfortable” with the idea that Ukraine “may not survive” the war with Russia.
“Well, it may not survive anyway,” Trump told Fox News. “It takes two. Look, it was not going to happen, that war, and it happened. So, now we’re stuck with this mess.”
Marco Rubio, the new US secretary of state, also made clear that Ukraine was not top of the Trump administration’s priorities at his hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on January 15.
Rubio said that the US would continue to stand by its closest allies, mentioning Taiwan and Israel explicitly. Regarding Ukraine, he said it was time to be “realistic” and suggested that both sides would have to make “concessions.”
“But ultimately, under President Trump, the top priority of the United States Department of State will be the United States,” he said. “American taxpayer dollars should only be spent to advance US interests, and every penny should be scrutinized to ensure its sincerity and effectiveness.”
In a recent op-ed for The Guardian, Stephan Wertheim, an expert on US foreign policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed out that “none of Trump’s predecessors ever made a commitment to fight for Ukraine. Joe Biden explicitly ruled out sending US troops when he saw Russia’s full-scale invasion coming.”
He added that no NATO allies had come to Ukraine’s direct defense. “The reason is obvious: it would mean war with Russia, a prospect that Nato allies can still deter regardless of what happens in Ukraine.”
“If Ukraine and Europe continue to push for strong US security guarantees,” he continued. “They have a small chance of succeeding and a larger chance of creating a permanent rupture with Trump. The president could conclude that his allies refuse to listen and, worse, keep trying to entrap him.”
Is Ukraine a pawn in the Russia-US relationship?
Stefan Meister, the head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, is very critical of Trump’s refusal to offer security guarantees to Ukraine.
The US president has “already massively worsened his own negotiating position and that of Ukraine,” he told German broadcaster SWR. “Why should Moscow make any compromises when the US president is already offering half of what Russia is demanding?”
He said that he was worried that Ukraine could simply fall by the wayside as Russia-US relations were readjusted. “My impression is that Trump ultimately doesn’t really care about Ukraine,” he said, explaining that Ukraine might just be “a pawn” given to Russia in return for “other things.”
These “other things” could be related to the topics mentioned by Rubio. Israel and peace in the Middle East, relations with China, dealings with Iran, and a rapprochement between Washington and Moscow.
The US columnist Robert Kagan has no illusions. “President Trump has made it clear that the US is no longer prepared to defend Europe,” the former Republican, who has advised several US presidents, said in an interview with the German weekly newspaper Die Zeit.
Kagan said that the idea of standing up for democracy in other regions of the world was alien to Trump. “He seems to have no qualms about concluding a ‘deal’ with Putin’s criminal regime over the heads of the Europeans.”
This article was originally published in German.
