The rift between Hungary and the rest of the EU over the war in Ukraine looked wider than ever on Thursday, when Budapest declined to put its name on a joint summit statement for the second time in as many weeks.
But instead of spending hours haggling with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in a bid for unanimity among all 27 states as they have often done in the past at such EU gatherings, the remaining states simply pressed on.
“The European Council reaffirms its continued and unwavering support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders,” leaders wrote in a statement signed off by 26 countries.
Budapest had made its intentions to withhold its green light abundantly clear ahead of time.
While the EU has reacted ambivalently to US-spearheaded talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, Orbán has enthusiastically welcomed the negotiations that have largely excluded both Kyiv and the EU.
“In our understanding, there is one simple mission [for] the European Union, to support … [US] President Donald Trump’s efforts to make peace,” Orbán told the press on the eve of the Brussels summit, for which he did not make an official arrival statement.
The Hungarian leader, who has the warmest relationship to Moscow in the EU, argues that EU support of Ukraine prolongs the war, which started with Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 to widespread international condemnation.
Equally, EU diplomats from other countries and officials told reporters there was no point wasting time pursuing an agreement that would never be found. What would have been a big deal in less turbulent times is becoming increasingly normal.
No agreement? No problem
As a matter of principle, the EU always tries to get every country on board, though it technically doesn’t need to do so for a message of support with no real binding commitments, like the one signed off on Thursday.
There is plenty the rest of the EU can do without Hungary on board. The conclusions stressed commitments to keep providing cash and arms, but also the potential for EU states to help provide security guarantees – in other words, a deterrent to stop Putin from invading again once the war is over – and to keep up pressure on Russia.
With Washington apparently disengaging from Kyiv and Europe in general, top diplomat Kaja Kallas is currently working to organize a fresh pot of EU funding for Ukraine.
On Thursday, the 26 EU states also gave her the go-ahead to continue, on the understanding member states could get involved on a voluntary basis. Figures up to 40 billion euros have been circulating in Brussels, diplomatic sources told reporters ahead of the talks on condition of anonymity, including 5 billion for ammunition, though nothing is yet finalized.
In the three years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Hungary has repeatedly held up chunks of EU funding for Kyiv from other pots of money using its veto. As a voluntary initiative, Kallas’ plan to drum up fresh cash would not need Budapest approval.
For accession, not so simple
But for many matters, such a workaround isn’t possible: unanimity is necessary. Backed in particular by the Baltic and Nordic states, Ukraine is pushing to properly open EU accession talks this year. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said that Ukraine could possibly join 2030 if it were to keep up reform efforts, though few view that as realistic.
Meeting the tough criteria to join the EU takes many years, even for countries who aren’t currently at war. Among other issues, Ukraine has long grappled with corruption.
Moreover, Orbán has said Hungarians would be polled on whether they wanted to see Ukraine join the EU, and is threatening to block accession. Kyiv got unanimous approval to start talks after Budapest dropped a veto.
Addressing EU leaders in Brussels via videolink, Zelenskyy homed in on the question of accession. “It’s simply anti-European when one person blocks decisions that are important for the entire continent or that have already been agreed upon,” he said. “Europe needs speed in making decisions and clear tools to protect itself from unnecessary blockages.”
More showdowns on the horizon
Decisions relating to punitive measures must also be signed off by all EU states. Not for the first time, EU ambassadors struck an eleventh hour deal with Hungary last weekend to roll over sanctions listing more than 2,000 individuals linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The punitive measures must be renewed every six months, and Budapest insisted on the removal of a handful of names from EU listings, multiple media outlets reported.
In July, another deadline for the massive economic sanctions the EU has slapped on Russia will be up for renewal again. The EU is also already working towards a 17th package of sanctions.
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has at times sided with Orbán over the EU’s Ukraine policy and refused to send military aid, indicated he would be ready to oppose further punitive measures if they undermined current negotiations.
“We cannot stubbornly insist on sanctions at all costs,” Fico said in comments picked up by Slovak news agency TASR.
“There may come a moment when we say that we disagree, because we believe it goes against the peace efforts that are currently being made. If we perceive an attempt for further sanctions as something that could undermine the peace process, we are ready to veto it.”
Nonetheless, cooperation in other areas continues. Orbán is on board with EU plans to invest hugely in defense in the coming years, as Washington grows more volatile and less inclined to underwrite European security.
While it has formally welcomed recent ceasefire agreements brokered by the US, the EU is still waiting to see where the talks are headed. But it is clear that Orbán feels the wind in his sails as his close ally Trump remains in the driver’s seat. “We feel ourselves in a very good position,” Hungarian government spokesperson Balazs Orbán told reporters on the sidelines of the summit, “because we think that unfortunately Europe is isolated.”
Edited by: Jess Smee
