Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the new Neptune missile had successfully passed all of its tests and proven itself in battle.
“It is a new Ukrainian rocket, very precise. It has a range of 1,000 kilometers [620 miles]. Many thanks to our Ukrainian developers, manufacturers and our military,” he wrote on Telegram, without giving further information as to potential targets.
Open source intelligence analysts and media outlets have reported that Ukraine used the new rocket to hit a Russian oil refinery in the Black Sea port of Tuapse this past weekend. Regional Russian officials confirmed a fire at a facility in the town — some 550 kilometers from the front line. Experts told DW that the new rocket is likely a modification of Ukraine’s Neptune R-360 anti-ship missile.
The R-360 cruise missile was developed by Luch Design Bureau in Kyiv, and has been employed by Ukrainian forces since 2020. The R-360, along with the RK-360MC-System, is used to protect Ukraine’s coastline by recognizing and destroying enemy ships. The R-360 has an explosive payload of up to 150 kilograms (331 pounds) and has a range of up to 300 kilometers.
Its first use in battle came in April 2022, when it was deployed against the Russian frigate Admiral Essen. That trial was followed days later by what would become one of the most important events in the war, when two such missiles struck and sank the €750 million Russian cruiser Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
But that capability wasn’t enough to satisfy engineers in Ukraine. They presented a further modification of the R-360 in 2023, giving it the capability to strike both land and sea-based targets.
As an anonymous representative from Ukraine’s Defense Ministry told the US portal The War Zone, the new version has an improved range of up to 400 kilometers as well as being able to carry an explosive payload of up to 350 kilograms — 200 kilos more than the anti-ship version. The missile has been used on numerous occasions, among others, when targeting Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems at Saky air base in occupied Crimea in September 2023.
Now, according to military experts, it appears Ukrainian engineers have developed an updated version of the Neptune.
Will Ukraine be able to mass produce new missile?
Mykola Sunhurovskyi from the Razumkov Center, a Kyiv-based public policy NGO, told DW that the main issue will be whether Ukraine can mass produce the new weapon. Sunhurovskyi said the new projectile only makes sense if it can be used in large numbers.
“I hope that with a combination of technological, manufacturing and financial resources, Ukraine and its Western partners can really crank up production. But the question is, where to produce them […] because the whole of Ukraine’s territory is under attack,” he said.
Serhiy Zgurets from the Ukrainian defense consulting firm Defense Express agreed that serial production is key. He believes Ukraine should be able to keep up with Russia and produce 40 to 50 missiles each month.
“We have to achieve that kind of pace,” he said, adding that unlike other types of missiles, the team behind this new Neptune is extremely experienced. “For instance, people have been talking about the [Ukrainian] Sapsan ballistic missile for 15 to 20 years now and it still hasn’t been completed.” Whereas, he added, the Neptune has already repeatedly proven its worth in battle.
Can Kyiv replace Western weapons?
Until the arrival of the Neptune, the American ATACMS as well as UK-supplied Storm Shadow rockets were the only longer-range missiles that Kyiv had at its disposal. Publicly accessible data suggests those rockets had maximum ranges of up to 300 kilometers.
Media reports also suggest that Ukraine burned through its last ATACMS missiles in January. So far, it’s unclear whether further shipments have been sent by the US. Kyiv is also running low on Storm Shadow rockets.
That’s why experts are happy to see that Kyiv now has a long-range missile of its own. Nevertheless, they doubt the new missile will allow Ukraine to entirely replace its Western arsenal.
“Considering what the Ukrainian armed forces needs in terms of missiles, this isn’t about replacing Western rockets. It’s about supplementing them,” said Sunhurovskyi.
Zgurets also pointed to Ukraine’s ongoing need for a missiles that it has yet to receive, especially German Taurus cruise missiles. “A Taurus flies up to 600 kilometers with a payload of 450 kilograms. Its range is less than the Neptune, but the Taurus has a unique penetrating warhead that is made to destroy bunkers deep underground. A Taurus is technologically refined and is the most advanced missile there is,” he said.
What can Kyiv target with its new missiles?
Sunhurovskyi said Russia has reacted to Ukraine’s increasing reach by withdrawing potential targets — such as fighter jets and certain production facilities — further away from the front lines. “But you can’t move an oil refinery,” he added. Thanks to the Neptune’s range, a whole host of Russian targets are now within reach.
Until now, Ukraine could only hit targets at a distance of greater than 300 kilometers with drones. The Ukraine-developed fighter drone Lyuty, for instance, has a range of 1,000 kilometers. And its Ninja drones established a long-distance record when they were used to attack a refinery belonging to the chemical company Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat — 1,500 kilometers (more than 900 miles) away. The news was reported by Ukrainian media in May 2024, citing anonymous intelligence services sources.
“Drones will still be used but they can’t carry much of an explosive charge — up to 50 kilos. You cannot penetrate a fortified target with them, not even if you hit it with several drones at once,” said Oleksiy Hetman, a reserve major of the National Guard of Ukraine and a veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, in a recent radio interview. He estimated that the Neptune can carry a 300-kilogram warhead, and would therefore be able to destroy fortified buildings.
Zgurets said there many Russian targets beyond a distance of 300 kilometers that could be destroyed with the use of the new missile, from logistics centers to mostly manufacturing facilities, truly turning the current conflict into a war of attrition.
“That is exactly what Russia is trying to do to Ukraine,” he said, emphasizing that Ukraine’s new missile could allow it to destroy Russian refineries, command posts and weapons depots without Kyiv being dependent on aid from the US or anyone else.
This article was originally written in Ukrainian.
