After talks among close to 30 mainly European and NATO leaders in Paris on Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron touted plans to deploy troops from “several” European countries to Ukraine should a lasting peace deal be established.
The contours of any such arrangement are still unclear but could take firmer shape in the coming weeks. British and French defense officials will soon visit Ukraine to scope out security needs on the ground, Macron announced.
“There will be a reassurance force with several European countries who will deploy,” to Ukraine, Macron told the press after a three-hour meeting of leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz.
There was no unanimity, the French president conceded, and not all of Ukraine’s European allies would take part. Some did not have the “capacity” and others would not because of the “political context” in which they found themselves, he added.
For weeks now, Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have teamed up in efforts to provide a “reassurance force” for Kyiv.
Why are France and Britain planning to send troops?
Washington sent Europe into tailspin earlier this year by opening bilateral talks with Moscow and temporarily suspending military aid for Kyiv. The US is set on brokering peace in Ukraine, despite vehement protests about the possible terms from Kyiv. And for European officials, the major fear is that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be emboldened into a further attack in Ukraine, or even elsewhere in Europe, by a deal that granted him terms that were too favorable.
This week, after talks led by US President Donald Trump, Kyiv and Moscow agreed to a tentative deal to dial down hostilities in the Black Sea, a potential first step on the long road to a permanent peace deal.
But that already seemed to be unravelling by Thursday, after Russia announced that it expected the dropping of some Western sanctions as part of the deal, something that was not mentioned in the US announcement about the agreement. European leaders meeting in Paris rejected the prospect of sanctions relief on Thursday, saying they would stay in place as long as Russia continued its aggression in Ukraine.
The French-British initiative is part of Europe’s response as it seeks to insert itself into the potential peace process and provide security guarantees for Ukraine, even if not everyone is on board.
The EU has also committed to hugely boosting its defense investments in a bid to wean itself off dependency on the US. Under President Donald Trump, the US has rapidly turned much more hostile towards Ukraine and Europe.
What could the mission look like?
On Thursday, Macron emphasized that members of any such force would not be deployed to the front line, act as active peacekeepers, or be any kind of substitute for the Ukrainian army. Their goal, he stressed, was to deter further Russian aggression.
The British Prime Minister said London had hosted “over 200 military planners from 30 countries” this week, and that countries were “coming forward with contributions on everything from logistics and command and control, to deployments on land, air and sea.”
The possible troop numbers are unclear at this stage, although according to Rafael Loss, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, or ECFR, there could well be 15,000 to 20,000 troops stationed in Ukraine.
But for that to happen, there would first need “to be a robust agreement to cease the fire and to delineate a line of control, to establish political terms of communication between the warring parties, and mediating parties to defuse future disagreements.”
“The whole idea is to create risks for Russia, so that Russian leadership might think twice before attacking Ukraine,” Loss told DW. “But that obviously means that Europeans in Ukraine would be at risk as well, and then there would be a risk that any conflict would not be contained to the territory of Ukraine.”
Putin has repeatedly said he would not accept NATO-country troops being stationed in Ukraine.
Who might be on board?
So far, as well as Britain and France, Nordic and Baltic states have expressed interest in taking part. Germany’s position is unclear while the new government forms, although the likely next chancellor, conservative politician Friedrich Merz, has indicated more openness than outgoing incumbent Scholz. Southern states like Italy and Spain have been much more skeptical.
The US has ruled out participating itself. Some feel the mission won’t be possible without US backup, or have called for the mission to be carried out under a United Nations mandate. However, given Russia’s seat on the UN Security Council, that is unlikely to happen on terms acceptable to both Kyiv and Moscow.
On Thursday, Macron stressed that Europe must be prepared to go it alone. “You have to hope for the best but prepare for the worst,” he said. “My hope is that the Americans will be on our side and that the Americans will support, even play an active role. But we have to be prepared for a situation where perhaps they won’t join in,” he added.
In Paris, Macron and Starmer made clear they were actively planning for a future post-conflict scenario, even if they were skeptical about Russia’s commitment to peace at present. Starmer said Europe would “be ready to operationalize a peace deal whatever its precise shape turns out to be” and “would work together to ensure Ukraine’s security so it can defend and deter against the future.”
For the ECFR’s Loss, this was a message for the US as much as it was for Kyiv. “One of the purposes is to signal that Europeans are not dropping the ball, that despite sort of discouraging news maybe coming out of the ceasefire talks and … statements by officials, Europeans continue to engage in this conversation,” he said.
