As Istanbul’s jailed opposition mayor appeared in court on Friday in one of multiple cases against him, supporters gathered to protest what they believe is a politically motivated campaign to bar him from running for the presidency.
Ekrem Imamoglu, who has been held at Silivri prison since March 23, is the presidential candidate for Turkey’s main opposition CHP party. He was seen as the candidate with the best chance of defeating President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power for almost a quarter of a century.
Imamoglu’s imprisonment has been widely viewed as politically motivated, but Erdogan’s government has insisted the judiciary is independent and free of political influence. If sentenced, Imamoglu could be banned from public office.
But despite the weeks of anti-government protests and a trial that many see as yet another step in Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism, the European Union response has been seen as perfunctory.
Selim Kuneralp, a former Turkish ambassador to the EU, told DW that the EU has been “a bit hesitant” to respond to the mayor’s arrest and the subsequent crackdown on protesters. “I think EU leaders were unwilling to appear to be too hostile to President Erdogan,” he added.
Turkey is an EU aspirant and is expected to hold higher standards in rule of law, human rights and press freedom. But Turkey’s growing strategic value as a NATO member, experts say, seems to have influenced Europe’s response to the deterioration of these values.
How has the EU responded to Imamoglu’s arrest?
The Council of Europe, the continent’s leading human rights body, has called for the “immediate release” of the mayor. And some senior politicians in Germany — which has a large Turkish population — have also expressed their support for the protesters.
Felix Banaszak, co-chair of Germany’s Green Party, visited Turkey to “support democratic forces.” Serpil Midyatli, deputy leader of center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), expressed her concerns over the independence of the judiciary and whether the mayor will receive a fair trial.
“There is already more than one indication that the judiciary is no longer independent,” she told DW on Friday, adding that the proceedings could be “dragged out as long as possible.”
Marta Kos, the EU commissioner for enlargement and therefore directly responsible for Turkey’s accession to the bloc, canceled a visit to Turkey in opposition to the mayor’s arrest. She was supposed to attend the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, set for April 11-13, and meet with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
As an institution, however, the EU has not offered much more than the usual platitudes. “The European Union is deeply concerned about the detention and arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and other public figures, including members of the press and civil society representatives,” said Kos said at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on April 1, calling it the result of “democratic “backsliding.”
“We have repeatedly stated that Turkey needs to effectively reverse the negative trend in the areas of fundamental rights and rule of law,” she added.
Kos alluded to the EU’s limitations in dealing with Turkey as she emphasized the multifaceted relationship with the country. “In Syria, in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, in Lebanon or in the southern Caucasus, Turkey is a strategic partner of Europe,” she said.
Asli Aydintasbas, a senior policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign relations, said the EU’s muted response is a result of various geopolitical pressures the union is grappling with. The EU has transitioned to “a hard-nosed and pragmatic approach,” she said, as cooperation with Turkey in various regional crises with a direct bearing on the bloc becomes necessary.
“It is clear that Istanbul’s mayor does not feature in the top 10 priorities of the EU,” vis-a-vis Turkey, she added.
Is Turkey indispensable to European security?
As part of a 2015 deal that saw Turkey receive €9 billion over the last decade, Ankara promised to slow irregular migration into the EU. And just four months ago, it scored a geopolitical victory as Turkey-backed rebels ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad and formed a transitional government in December.
Perhaps even more importantly from a European security perspective, Turkey has maintained close ties with Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine. There is a growing sense Istanbul may need to play a role to keep the peace, once it has been established.
“Europe’s security is unthinkable without Turkey,” President Erdogan said recently as he advocated for deeper integration with European countries.
Analysts believe Turkish troops could be included in the proposed reassurance force to monitor the peace in Ukraine, if and when the war ends and a settlement is agreed upon between Moscow and Kyiv.
Lawrence Freedman, an eminent military historian and strategist, told DW in February that Russia may find the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine “more acceptable” if Turkish soldiers were a part of it. Turkey has signaled it would be willing.
NATO chief Mark Rutte has hailed Turkey’s value, not only for securing the Black Sea grain deal at the start of the conflict in 2022 but also for providing Ukraine with much-needed ammunition, artillery and drones.
In a press conference in early April, Rutte dodged a question on Imamoglu’s arrest when asked whether NATO would reconsider Turkey’s offer to host the allies for an informal meeting scheduled to be held in May.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said he wishes for Turkey to play a leading role in ending the war in Ukraine, and discussed a “clear proposal for Turkey to take on the greatest possible co-responsibility” to resolve the conflict.
Aydintasbas said Erdogan is trying to strike a deal with his NATO allies.
“Turkey is right now the strongest force in the Black Sea and is telling its Western counterparts, its allies, that in exchange for a push back against Russia, it wants support for Turkey’s military modernization efforts,” she said. “The message is: We won’t fight Russia but our robust presence means denying Russia control of the Black Sea.”
‘EU has no leverage’ over Turkey
Since the start of the war in February 2022, Turkey has refused to impose anti-Russia sanctions and continued to purchase Russian energy — which has in turn fueled the Kremlin’s war machinery.
Some fear Turkey’s economic dependence on Russia may keep it closer to Moscow than Europe. In addition to importing Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline, Turkey sends the largest share of agricultural exports to Russia and hosts millions of Russian tourists every year.
While Russia has made inroads in Turkey, the EU lost all leverage when it froze Turkey’s membership bid.
“The EU has no leverage because there are no negotiations on Turkey’s accession process, or deepening of the customs union, or visa liberalization,” said former Turkish ambassador Kuneralp.
Experts believe even though stronger ties with Turkey offer compelling strategic advantages for the EU, diverging too far away from European values could backfire.
Edited by: Martin Kuebler
