Voters in Poland go to the polls on May 18 for the first round of the presidential election.
But the ballot is not just about whether the left-wing liberal Rafal Trzaskowski or the national-conservative Karol Nawrocki, the two front-runners, will become the country’s next president. There is much more at stake in this election.
The outcome of the presidential election will determine whether the pro-European, center-left government led by Donald Tusk can take forward its plans, which have been stymied by President Andrzej Duda since the government was elected about 18 months ago.
Although the Polish head of state does not have as much power as the French or American presidents, he does have much more than the German president, for example, who has a largely representational role.
The Polish president, who is directly elected by the people, can veto government bills, is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, has a right to a say in the country’s foreign policy and can propose new legislation.
Disappointment about lack of progress on reform
When Donald Tusk’s coalition government took power in December 2023 after eight years of national-conservative rule under Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, many Poles had high hopes of swift pro-democracy reform in the country.
The parties in the new government had promised to restore the rule of law, liberalize abortion legislation and introduce more rights for the LGBTQ+ community during their election campaign.
They also wanted to reform public media in Poland and hold to account politicians accused of corruption and an abuse of power.
However, it quickly became apparent that most of the government’s attempts at reform would be blocked by the country’s national-conservative president.
Andrzej Duda either uses his veto or refers bills to the constitutional court, which is full of PiS supporters.
For this reason, the domestic achievements of Donald Tusk’s government after 18 months in power have been few and far between. This has led to disappointment and discontent across the country, including among those who traditionally vote for the parties currently in government.
Which candidate is the government backing?
This explains why Tusk chose to back fellow party member and left-wing liberal Rafal Trzaskowski for president.
Trzaskowski, who is mayor of Warsaw, is considered the candidate with the best chance of winning even though he narrowly lost the last presidential election to Duda five years ago.
Despite the fact that at 53 he is seen as relatively young, Trzaskowski is a seasoned politician.
He has already held the posts of Minister of Administration and Digitization and Secretary of State in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and been a member of the European Parliament. He was elected mayor of the Polish capital in 2018.
Trzaskowski belongs to the left wing of Tusk’s Civic Platform party. He is in favor of a liberal abortion law that permits terminations up to the twelfth week of pregnancy and has removed crucifixes from the offices of Warsaw City Hall. He is one of the few politicians in Poland to defend the EU’s climate policy.
With just a few days to go until the first round on Sunday, he is ahead in the polls, even though his lead of recent weeks has shrunk to just a few percentage points.
Which candidate is the president backing?
Karol Nawrocki is his strongest opponent in the election. The 42-year-old historian from Gdansk is head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance (IPN).
Although officially an independent candidate, the right-wing activist has the backing of PiS leader Kaczynski, who felt that Nawrocki would appeal to right-wing voters who don’t normally vote PiS because, unlike former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, he was not part of the party structure.
But Kaczynski’s plan doesn’t seem to be working: Nawrocki is polling worse than PiS because even some party members don’t know the candidate well.
His campaign has also been hit by journalists’ claims that he has had contacts in the underworld and, in early May, a scandal about a social housing apartment in Gdansk his opponents claim he bought by irregular means.
After a massive backlash, Nawrocki has transferred the apartment to a Christian charitable organization that supports homeless people, while at the same time protesting his innocence in the affair.
At election events, Nawrocki has criticized immigrants, the EU’s Green Deal and Brussels. He is calling for cuts to aid for Ukraine and paints Germany as Poland’s enemy.
Support from Trump and Simion
Nawrocki’s campaign team used its Republican contacts in the US to secure a photo opp with US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office earlier this month. Trump reportedly told Nawrocki “You will win.”
George Simion, the far-right candidate who won the first round of the presidential election in Romania earlier this month, also traveled to Poland in a show of support for Nawrocki.
Speaking together at a rally in the city of Zabrze in southern Poland on Tuesday, the two announced that they want to build a “Europe of fatherlands.”
“We will not allow ourselves to be centralized by the EU, and Poland and Romania to be turned into administrative districts [of the EU],” said Nawrocki.
Far-right candidate in third place in polls
For a while, it looked as if Slawomir Mentzen, the candidate from the extreme right-wing Confederation Liberty and Independence, could pose a threat to Nawrocki.
Several polls in March 2025 had Mentzen nipping at Nawrocki’s heels or even overtaking him. He has since slipped back to just under 12%.
The 38-year-old tax consultant and entrepreneur has been touring the country since last fall, boasting that he has held over 340 campaign events. He is particularly strong on social media and has 1.6 million followers on TikTok.
Mentzen’s program is built on a fundamental criticism of Poland’s political situation — in particular the healthcare and pension systems — and the EU’s migration policy and Green Deal.
Mentzen’s program also includes the right to possess firearms and a radical ban on abortion (even in cases of rape). His radical slogans attract above all young people: A disproportionately high number of young people of a school-going age attend his events.
Runoff election in two weeks’ time likely
Unless the vote takes an unexpected turn, the race for the presidential palace will not be decided in the first round on Sunday, but in a runoff between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki on June 1.
Even though polls put the left-wing liberal candidate in front, victory for Trzaskowski is not a foregone conclusion.
Will the people who voted for the parties in the ruling coalition back the mayor of Warsaw on Sunday or will they stay at home? And who will Mentzen’s backers vote for in the second round?
Tusk is likely to be on tenterhooks until the very last vote is counted.
This article was originally written in German and adapted by Aingeal Flanagan.
