Trump and Putin spoke for two hours on Monday evening.
“I believe it went very well,” Trump posted on X. “Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War,” he wrote.
He added that the conditions would be negotiated between the two parties.
Trump also highlighted that “Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic “bloodbath” is over, and I agree.”
“There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED,” Trump wrote.
“Likewise, Ukraine can be a great beneficiary on Trade, in the process of rebuilding its country,” he added.
‘Memorandum’ on peace accord
Putin’s reaction, on the other hand, was much more sober. He called the talks “frank, informative and very useful.”
He said that Russia too was in favor of a peaceful solution and he was prepared to work with Ukraine on a “memorandum” on a possible future peace accord.
However, Putin did not elaborate on what such a memorandum could look like.
“In terms of tone and content, these two reactions differed radically from one another,” Alexandra Filipenko, an independent political analyst based in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, told DW. In her view, the conversation itself did not achieve anything. “They agreed, as is so often the case, to continue agreeing,” she said.
Putin wants to remove ‘root causes’ of war
Filipenko added that it was worth noting that Putin had once more spoke of the need to eliminate the “root causes” of the war. This meant that Ukraine should renounce its aspirations for NATO membership and recognize the regions annexed by Russia as being Russian territory.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already rejected these demands as being unacceptable.
Compared to 2022, Putin has not “moved an inch” from his positions,” Filipenko said.
On the contrary, the Kremlin leader had “consolidated his position” and there was “no breakthrough to speak of here at all.”
The Vienna-based Russian political analyst Mikhail Komin described the reactions of Putin and Trump as a “roaring void.”
They both know that they are incapable of convincing each other of their arguments, he explained. “What did the two of them discuss for two hours anyway?” he wondered.
He speculated that the call had focused less on how to end the war in Ukraine and more on other topics, mainly bilateral economic relations between Russia and the US.
He continued that this did not bode well for Ukraine and its European allies, “as Vladimir Putin’s plan to stall negotiations is working.”
He said that this plan consisted of two points: Firstly, not to provoke Trump in order to prevent him from supporting Ukraine more. This could involve additional sanctions against Russia for instance or larger arms supplies for Ukraine.
“The Kremlin wants Trump to at least remain neutral,” Komin said, adding that this was succeeding.
The second part of Putin’s strategy, Komin said, was not to agree to anything, to reject everything, not to compromise and to continue the attack on Ukraine.
“The Kremlin sees no reason to end the war now because, in its opinion, things on the front are developing in Russia’s favor,” Komin said. He added that there was no talk of Russia’s global isolation.
“In this respect, the memorandum with Ukraine, which Putin would be ready to sign is just a kind of declaration of intent,” criticized Filipenko, calling the paper “useless because it does not commit to anything.”
A Trump show for US voters?
“Trump’s enthusiastic reaction to the phone call with Putin is more of a show for his own voters at home,” Filipenko told DW. She thought the future of the Ukraine talks was in the hands of the US State Department and particularly Congress, as it could decide on new sanctions to penalize Russia.
However, for the time being, she did not envisage any additional pressure being exerted on Putin.
“Trump could have threatened sanctions, but instead he is talking about trade opportunities to draw Putin into peace negotiations,” Filipenko said.
“While the US president claims that he can achieve peace through trade, such tactics are not enough to impress Putin,” she added.
“Putin is absolutely certain that he will anyway conclude all the necessary agreements one way or another,” Filipenko predicted, saying that she saw little chance of peace in Ukraine in the near future.
“Now that it is clear that Putin is playing Trump, we have to do something,” shed said. “Otherwise, things are looking bad for Ukraine.”
This article was originally published in German.
