The European Commission wants to increase EU clout in the strategically important Black Sea region, countering Russian influence through closer collaboration with Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia.
“Against a backdrop of Russia breaching airspace, attacking ports and shipping routes … front and center of this work is improving security in the region,” EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday, unveiling a new strategy for the region.
The Black Sea is a body of water bordering seven countries with its coast spanning two EU member states — Bulgaria and Romania— as well as EU accession candidates Georgia, Turkey and Ukraine, plus Russia. Moldova, another aspiring EU state, also has access via the Danube River.
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Black Sea has been both a theatre of combat and the site of Russian blockades of Ukrainian grain exports, which are key to world food security.
More recently, the EU has grown concerned about potential Russian attacks on critical undersea infrastructure like cables needed for internet and communications as well as so-called “shadow fleet” shipping that helps Russia skirt EU sanctions on its oil exports, Kallas said.
What is the EU proposing?
In general, the plan is to further build on trade, energy and transport cooperation.
The most concrete aspect of the new proposal is to set up a “maritime security hub” to enhance “situational awareness and information sharing on the Black Sea, real-time monitoring from space to seabed, and early warning of potential threats and malicious activities,” according to the strategy document.
Kallas said it could also help monitor a potential future ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Another goal is to support the buildup of regional transport infrastructure, in part “to improve military mobility so troops and equipment can be where they are needed, when they are needed,” Kallas said.
However, where the hub would be based and which countries would be involved is not clear, nor is there any clarity on which financial resources would be allocated to it.
How might Black Sea countries respond?
While most Black Sea countries apart from Russia are on cooperative terms with the EU, some are more closely aligned with the 27-country bloc’s agenda than others.
The governments of Ukraine and Moldova are striving to join the EU. Georgia and Turkey are also EU candidate countries although their bids to join are currently frozen. Armenia has drawn closer to the EU in recent years while Azerbaijan has a complex relationship with Russia and the EU.
Turkey is a close partner of the EU and member of the military alliance NATO but as a strong regional player, it also has its own interests to consider.
Like Russia, Turkey also has an interest in keeping the US and other NATO countries out of the Black Sea region, Stefan Meister, head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, or DGAP, said. Ankara is hedging its bets, fulfilling its obligations to NATO while trying not to provoke Moscow, he notes.
Ankara “understands Russia as a security threat, supports Ukraine in the war and does not agree with the Russian annexation of Crimea,” Meister told DW. “But it benefits from the Western sanctions, still buys Russian resources and benefits from the trade with Ukraine.”
EU relationship with Black Sea region has changed
The EU first started taking a keener interest in the Black Sea region, which was traditionally dominated by Russia and Turkey, after Bulgaria and Romania joined the bloc in 2007. It is not alone: China has also increased its footprint there. Last year the Georgian government awarded the tender to construct a deep sea port at Anaklia to a Chinese conglomerate that includes entities under US sanctions.
“Ten years ago, EU engagement was less strategic, and China’s footprint was smaller,” Tinatin Akhvlediani, a foreign policy research fellow at the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies, explained. “Today failing to deepen ties here would come at a real cost to Europe’s security and economic weight,” the expert told DW.
According to DGAP expert Meister, the Black Sea is now “at the center of European security and crucial for connectivity with other regions like the South Caucasus, the Caspian Sea, Central Asia and the Middle East.”
Meister says it is a good thing that the EU is looking to take a more active role in security in the Black Sea with a monitoring hub. But much was still unclear, he stressed, referring to the lack of further details on participation, financing and resources for the new security hub.
On Wednesday, the European Commission said the next step would be to gather ministers from EU member states and Black Sea countries to discuss how to take the proposal forward.
