DW: President Niinisto, we are speaking after a third meeting between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey this year that again failed to produce results to end the war. Do you see any chances for diplomacy to broker at least a ceasefire in the near future?
Sauli Niininsto: What we’ve seen for more than three years is the continuation of the war. It seems that neither Russia nor Ukraine is going to achieve a complete victory. So if nothing else, we must try to reach an agreement through diplomacy.
It looks like the European leaders do not know whether they should call Vladimir Putin or not. Germany’s then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Putinin 2024. President Emmanuel Macron of France called him a few weeks ago. US President Donald Trump called him many times. Do you see any reason to continue phone conversations with Putin?
Chancellor Scholz was heavily criticized after he called. But when Trump started doing it regularly, and then Macron took the same step, he was not criticized. So, in a way, European opinion followedPresident Trump here. I guess Trump will continue his kind of diplomacy, and in my opinion, if he does, Europe has to be involved somehow.
In 2018 in Helsinki, when you met both Putin and Trump, Fiona Hill, who was an advisor to Trump at the time, said that you briefed Trump about Putin and Russia. What did you tell him, and what did he say to you?
I told him that Putin is a fighter. You have to oppose him. That’s very necessary. It doesn’t break the discussion. I had the feeling that Putin likes a fight ― that we’ve seen that in other areas too. That’s one element. Another is that whatever new ideas or views Putin supports, be careful if you’re not completely aware of everything it might involve. One thing I learned is that he often opens an idea very modestly, even though he’s been developing it in his mind for a long time. If you touch it, you’re easily drawn into it. So I told Trump, if you don’t fully understand what he means, or if it’s a completely unknown idea, don’t get involved. I also said that Putin likes to be respected ― not accepted, but respected. He considers it respectful when he’s opposed, when you fight back.
It seems like Donald Trump changed his attitude towards Russia recently. He now uses strong language to criticize Putin and he agreed to let Europeans buy American weapons for Ukraine. Is this a turning point or do you think he can still change his mind and stop support for Ukraine?
That’s a difficult question. I still believe Trump wants to be a peacemaker. I think his position regarding Putin is still the same. But yes, in a way, it is a turning point. We’ve seen some of those already. Becoming stronger in that discussion, that’s already a turning point in itself.
What do you think of Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Russia to end the war or face tougher sanctions? Could that bring a ceasefire closer?
There have been time limits before. I think Trump’s concrete actions and statements are more meaningful than just the “50 days” limit.
Do you think Vladimir Putin could agree to Ukraine’s EU membership?
I think he has said publicly ― at least a few years ago ― that it’s OK.
Yes, but now we hear from Moscow that they may not be so happy about this, because they see Europe as a warlike organization. They say the EU is militarizing. What do you think?
First of all, I hope that Europe becomes a lot stronger militarily. But it’s not up to Russia to decide about EU enlargement. That’s not their business.
When I said I’d like to see a stronger Europe, I was thinking of a speech Putin gave in 2013 or 2014, where he said the West is weak because people are too idealistic and not ready to face real-world challenges. That’s something we have to take seriously. Are we prepared to protect Europe and our countries?
If you have an aggressive neighbor like Russia who thinks you’re weak, that’s a dangerous combination. So Europe must show strength and be seen as strong from the outside.
You composed a report for the European Union in which you said that Europe was not strong enough. Where do you see the weakest points, and do you see any changes since the report?
What I saw was quite simple ― we are lacking both arms and troops. That’s the core problem.
Since then, I think we have to thank both Putin and Trump ― especially Trump. When he was elected, it served as a wake-up call. In Germany, for example, they’re now talking about conscription again. We also see a huge increase in financial input to the military within NATO. So a lot seems to be going on, and that’s good.
In a few days it will be 50 years since the Helsinki Final Act, which in many ways prepared the end of the Cold War. Do you think something like Helsinki is possible again?
In 2021, I started talking about reviving the “Helsinki Spirit.” I brought it up because it’s important in itself, but also because I saw in 2021 that things were getting worse.
I discussed it with the U.S. administration, President Biden, and also with President Putin. I asked whether something like that could happen again. Could we have something like the Helsinki Spirit, even on a broader global scale?
I got polite answers ― but then, of course, everything changed when Russia attacked Ukraine.
By Helsinki Spirit, I mean what happened in the middle of the Cold War, when world leaders sat at the same table and actually achieved something. I believe it would be very important for humanity if we could someday see the leaders of Russia, China, the United States, maybe others as well, sit at the same table and discuss common problems. Discuss what is going to happen to us.
Sauli Niininsto served as president of Finnland from 2012 to 2024.
Edited by: Carla Bleiker
