When EU foreign ministers meet, their agenda often reads like a world atlas. There are dizzying lists of statements and actions to sign off on, and points to tackle about every corner of the globe — and much time is usually eaten up in negotiations to cajole 27 states into a unanimous position.
But a couple of times a year, ministers put their heads together at “informal” talks — so-called not because they ditch the suits and show up in jeans, but because no official decisions can be taken.
The idea? Leave space for reflections and discussions that fall through the cracks of daily business.
EU diplomats described the weekend talks in the Danish capital as a “brainstorming” session on what comes next in the bloc’s support for Ukraine. Despite weeks of frenetic diplomacy, Ukrainians remain under attack, and Europe remains deeply skeptical of Russia’s desire for peace.
Here are some of the ideas that were floated this weekend in Copenhagen.
First hint of secondary sanctions
The EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas told reporters that ministers mulled so-called secondary sanctions — restrictions targeting Russia’s trading partners.
The EU has already sanctioned some entities, including Chinese banks, it accuses of helping Moscow finance its war, but broader secondary sanctions could be a more impactful — and more risky — move for Europe as it seeks more friends on the global stage and new trade deals with the likes of India.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene also warned that only secondary sanctions imposed by the US would “really produce enough pain for the Russian war machine.”
European measures “would be nice too,” she told DW, but added: “It’s a difference of having a really nuclear effect. Nobody in the world wants to feel secondary sanctions of the United States. That would be a game-changer.”
‘Safe haven:’ Ukrainian arms made on EU soil
In a first-of-its-kind operation, Denmark announced it will, “some weeks from now,” invite a Ukrainian arms company to start production on Danish soil.
Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said the site could be up and running this year, though did not share details on which weapons would be made there.
“I also expect that more Ukrainian defense companies will follow later this year,” he added.
Kaja Kallas said other countries were also interested in bringing the Ukrainian defense industry to their soil through similar schemes.
Part of the idea, according to diplomats speaking on the sidelines of the Copenhagen talks, is to show Russia that even as it targets Ukrainian arms factories inside the country, more sites will keep popping up elsewhere in the “safe haven” of the EU.
Thawing debate on frozen Russian assets
There was also a heated debate on what to do with roughly €200 billion ($233 billion) in Russian central bank assets frozen in the EU in 2022. Until now, EU states have opted to skim off the interest accrued on the assets and use it to support Ukraine.
A number of EU countries, including the Baltic states and Poland, have long pushed for the assets themselves to be seized and handed over to Kyiv. Political scientist Christine Nissen said that would mark a “turning point.”
But fellow EU member Belgium is staunchly against seizure, warning it could be both illegal and could scare future investors away from Europe.
“The argument is that it would simply be also us actually going against some of the principles of that liberal order that we believe in,” Nissen, an analyst with Think Tank Europa, told DW.
Kallas seemed to push back on those concerns on Saturday. “Financial markets did not react when we froze the assets. Financial markets are calm now as we discuss this,” she said. “There are risks, but I’m confident that we are able to mitigate those risks.”
“One thing is absolutely clear,” Kallas added. “Given the devastation Russia is causing in Ukraine and has caused in Ukraine so far, it is unthinkable that Russia will ever see this money again unless it fully compensates Ukraine.”
For now, the EU may consider moving the assets into more risky investments to beef up the amount available if the war ends.
EU military trainers inside Ukraine?
Kallas also said there was “broad support” for a plan to shift the EU’s current training mission for Ukrainian troops — hosted mainly in Poland and Germany — onto Ukrainian soil in the event of a ceasefire.
But with no actual truce in sight, Kallas acknowledged that this was a “chicken and egg issue.”
“Some are saying that we should do it after, but we can also do it conditionally,” she explained, suggesting member states pursue an agreement now on a change that could kick in at a later date.
But the plan may also get snagged on EU unanimity rules — with Hungary regularly delaying decisions on support for Ukraine. Still, Sakaliene told DW that the proposal is “much closer to conclusion than other difficult decisions.”
Beyond sanctions: Tariffs on Russian goods
Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, meanwhile, told DW she wanted to see a “comprehensive tariff scheme against Russian products, but also secondary imports into the European Union.”
Though the EU has banned imports of a slew of Russian exports from coal and cement to diamonds, Valtonen wants to hike duties on Russian goods that enter the bloc legally.
Moves to impose or lift tariffs do not require backing from all EU member states, making them less prone to get stuck in the bloc’s internal decionmaking processes.
Not so fast
Few in the EU think these measures could change the course of the war overnight, and critics accuse Europe of dragging its feet on more politically sensitive options, like speeding up its plans to ban all Russian fossil fuel imports.
“What is important,” analyst Nissen told DW, “is that they at least keep the European unity on how to deal with this war that means so much for Ukraine’s future and also, obviously, Europe’s future.”
Katharina Kroll and Finlay Duncan also contributed reporting.
