The European Union (EU) Commission President Ursula von der Leyen caused a stir over the weekend when she said that plans to deploy European troops to Ukraine as part of a post-conflict security guarantee were “pretty precise.”
“We have a clear road map, and we had an agreement [regarding US assistance] in the White House…and this work is going forward very well,” von der Leyen told the Financial Times in an interview on the matter published on Sunday.
The comments came as somewhat of a surprise given that so far, details of any potential troop deployment have been far from clear. Backlash from European member states was quick to follow, including from Germany.
“Those are things that you don’t discuss before you sit down at the negotiating table with many parties that have a say in the matter,” Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister, said in response.
So what exactly was von der Leyen trying to signal, and did she offer any clues about the plans ahead?
A signal of support
Guntram Wolff, senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, told DW that since the EU Commission president spoke while on a tour to Eastern European states, her remarks were likely intended to assuage those states’ concerns of a future Russian invasion.
“It is clearly a political signal. She is in Eastern Europe, visiting military bases, and she spoke of [the possible deployment of troops to Ukraine],” he said. “It is a message of support for Eastern European countries.”
But details of a possible European troop deployment or a potential US backstop seem far from clear just yet.
According to Ian Lesser, head of the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States organization, calling existing plans “pretty precise” was actually quite inaccurate. Rather, the US can only be expected to provide “more of the same” at this stage, he told DW.
“A US backstop won’t be any different from the kind of support Ukraine has been getting from the United States until now — such as intelligence support, or airlifts,” he added.
Most experts rule out the possibility of US troops being physically present in Ukraine, and add it is unlikely that any potential air support from the US would guarantee a kinetic defense response in the event of Europeans on the ground in Ukraine coming under Russian attack.
Von der Leyen hints at road map ahead
Bruegel fellow Wolff believes that the fact that von der Leyen mentioned discussions on “the necessary items for a functioning build-up of troops” might indicate that Ukrainian, not European, forces would be expected to hold the frontline in a peace agreement.
There is an ongoing debate over whether a future peace agreement would include European troops deployed as trainers, or peacekeepers, or even along the contact line between Russia and Ukraine.
“I think she has sketched out the plan correctly,” Wolff said. “Basically, armed Ukrainians will hold the frontline, but European forces would be more at the back, supported by the US. I think that is what she meant.”
Von der Leyen’s emphasis on the need to provide “sustainable financing” and equipment for Ukrainian armed forces additionally highlights Europe’s intentions to secure more funding to bolster Ukrain’s defense. In May, the EU announced a €150 billion ($174 billion) financing instrument for European firms to buy arms for Ukraine, or to jointly produce weapons with Ukrainian counterparts.
Still too early for a ‘pretty precise plan’?
Experts believe the specifics of a EU troop deployment — including the capacity under which they would be sent — or of Washington’s potential future role in any such deployment, are still being worked out.
The final shape of these plans will likely depend on what a settlement between Russia and Ukraine might look like.
As of now, Lesser pointed out, “there is no ceasefire,” meaning that conditions to deploy defensive European troops are not yet given. “Unless there is peace, it is difficult to know, with precision, what European [troop] presence and a US backstop could look like,” he added.
André Härtel, head of the Brussels office of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), backed that assessment and said that governments would additionally need to clear a series of national hurdles before sending troops.
“In Germany, for instance, the parliament would have to vote on any proposal,” he explained.
The debate over troop deployment remains contentious due to the high risk it entails of European forces becoming embroiled in an exchange with Russian forces, thereby expanding a war that Europe is trying to end.
“I think [von der Leyen] wants to push [US President Donald] Trump and European leaders to do more, before Thursday’s meeting of the ‘coalition of the willing,'” Härtel said, in reference to a group of 31 nations willing to participate in future security guarantees to Ukraine.
Edited by: Andreas Illmer
