In early May, when Poland’s presidential election campaign was in full swing, US President Donald Trump received right-wing conservative presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki in the Oval Office.
The two men posed together for a photo, which caused a sensation online, and Trump bade farewell to Nawrocki with the encouraging words “You will win.”
The support of his idol proved to be a boost for Nawrocki, who went on to narrowly win the election.
On Wednesday, Nawrocki will return to Washington, this time as Poland’s president.
Focus on policy issues
Wednesday’s visit will be about more than just photo ops and a political show for the cameras. This time, the focus will be on policies — in particular security policy, said Zbigniew Bogucki, head of the chancellery of the president.
Situated as it is on NATO’s eastern flank — and, therefore, on the front line in terms of the threat from Russia — Poland does not rely solely on NATO’s security guarantees, but also fosters a close, bilateral alliance with the USA.
At a time when Washington’s interest in Europe is waning, Warsaw hopes to secure the ongoing support of the Americans through good personal contacts and generous arms purchases.
Poland’s new president intends to continue this policy, which his predecessor, Andrzej Duda, pursued for ten years.
The US influence in Poland
About 10,000 American soldiers are currently stationed in Poland.
A US missile defense site for intercepting short-to-intermediate range ballistic missiles went into operation in Redzikowo in northern Poland in 2024.
The Polish army has — or will soon have — American Apache helicopters, Abrams tanks and HIMARS rocket launchers. Warsaw is also waiting to take delivery of 32 F-35 fighter jets.
The US administration’s plans to reduce its military presence in Europe are causing alarm both within the Polish government and the opposition. So, any suggestion by Trump that Poland would be spared such a reduction would be a success for Nawrocki.
The US also plays a key role in Poland’s energy security: Poland is turning to nuclear energy and its first nuclear power plant, which is due to go on-grid in 2036, will be built by the American company Westinghouse-Bechtel.
Conflict with the government
The conflict between President Nawrocki and the center-left government of Donald Tusk is casting a shadow over the president’s trip.
Since taking office four weeks ago, the president has vetoed seven government bills, including an extension of social welfare benefits for Ukrainian refugees in Poland.
This domestic dispute is now affecting the country’s foreign policy.
Prime Minister Tusk is of the opinion that the government sets out Poland’s foreign policy and that the president merely represents the country abroad.
This is at odds with the way Nawrocki sees his role: He is pushing the concept of an “active presidency” and wants to shape politics in the country.
Briefing note from government a ‘joke’
The Foreign Ministry sent a paper outlining the government’s positions to the chancellery of the president by way of preparing Nawrocki for his trip to Washington.
The president’s spokesperson Rafal Leskiewicz called the document “embarrassing” and “lacking concrete information.” He went on to say that the paper could be described as a “joke.”
The president knows what he has to say, added Marcin Przydacz, head of the president’s International Policy Bureau.
Leak in the chancellery of the president?
The contents of the document have since found their way into the media.
Polish newspapers have reported that the Foreign Ministry recommended that Nawrocki exercise “particular caution” on a number of subjects, including the digital tax and the regulation of social media.
It is unclear how the media got hold of the paper.
“This blunder puts Nawrocki in an unfortunate position,” wrote the internet platform Onet.
“If I were president,” posted Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on X, “I would find out who the idiot was [who leaked the document].”
It is assumed that the leak came from the chancellery of the president.
Power struggle
The dispute before the president’s Washington trip is just another chapter in the power struggle between Nawrocki and Tusk.
The president used his contacts in the US administration to prevent Tusk from taking part in a teleconference between several European heads of state and government and US President Trump on August 13 and to take Tusk’s place instead.
Because of the dispute, neither the president nor the prime minister joined the delegation of European leaders who accompanied Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Washington five days later.
It was announced on Tuesday that no representative of the Polish Foreign Ministry would accompany Nawrocki to Washington. The Polish Embassy in Washington has also been excluded from the visit.
But Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski was not to be deterred: He will fly to the US on Tuesday to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Nawrocki’s foreign policy ambitions
Although a new arrival on the global political stage, Nawrocki makes no bones of his international ambitions.
In Central and Eastern Europe in particular, he wants to call the tune when it comes to relations with the US, representing not only Poland, but also the entire region.
Last Thursday, he met President of Lithuania Gitanas Nauseda, President of Estonia Alar Karis, President of Latvia Edgars Rinkevics and Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen in Warsaw. Zelenskyy later joined the meeting by video.
After the meeting, Marcin Przydacz, head of the president’s International Policy Bureau, said that future peace in Ukraine must be “maximally just” and should not be viewed by Russia as a victory.
Russia bears responsibility for the aggression, he said, and must “feel the power of the West.”
First reparations, then good relations with Germany
Nawrocki intends to stop in Italy on his way home from Washington. He plans to meet the pope and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni while in Rome.
He has also planned visits to Lithuania and Finland.
Western neighbor Germany does not feature in the new president’s travel plans for the moment.
At the ceremony commemorating the 86th anniversary of the outbreak of World War II in Gdansk on Monday, Nawrocki made it clear that good relations with Germany depend on a solution to the question of war reparations for Poland.
This article was originally published in German.
