As global temperatures climb higher year after year, the Earth heads toward a new era marked by a prospective breach of the Paris Agreement. Signed in 2016, the international climate treaty set a limit to keep global surface temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius (C) (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, but two new studies warn that the world may be on its way to failing this critical test.
Recent temperature data reflect a turn for the worse, as 2024 became the first year in which the average global temperature surpassed 1.5 degrees C. The two new studies, both published in Nature Climate Change, were motivated by this tipping point to determine whether the 2024 data foreshadows an impending violation of the Paris Agreement limit; the simulations referenced in both studies show that it is a real possibility.
A Troubling Pattern
It’s impossible to say that the Paris Agreement limit has been broken yet since it is based on the running average of global surface temperature, measured in 20-year periods. One year of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, therefore, does not mean the limit is passed, as factors like an El Niño event — a natural climate pattern that results in the Pacific Ocean’s warming — impact yearly data. However, it could still represent the start of long-term warming.
One of the studies, based out of Europe, examined warming trends in the past to see how the world met previous temperature thresholds — 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, and 1.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels accordingly. The study’s authors found that the first single year when each of these thresholds was exceeded consistently fell within the first 20-year periods that reached the same temperature thresholds.
This pattern implies that since 2024 reached an average of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, we may have already entered a 20-year warming period that could eventually mark a breach of the Paris Agreement. If this holds true, the impacts of a world that will be averaging 1.5 degrees C warmer could soon materialize. There is a chance to reduce the probability of warming above 1.5 degrees C in the coming years, but this would require stringent mitigation efforts across the globe, the study’s authors state.
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The Start of Long-Term Warming
The other study, based out of Canada, involved a similar method of considering historical data as a way to anticipate future global warming. It noted that June 2024 was the 12th consecutive month of global surface temperatures reaching above the 1.5 degrees C benchmark (but again, this does not indicate a breach of the Paris Agreement yet).
Taking into account the 12 consecutive months of temperatures above the 1.5 degrees C threshold, the simulation in this study revealed that a short-term crossing of 1.5 degrees C in June 2024 means that a long-term crossing would probably occur before 2029.
Waiting on Climate Plans
The mounting threat of climate change became even more apparent in 2024, with the Paris Agreement constantly looming as a reminder that mitigation efforts need to ramp up. However, concerns have been raised about the priority of climate agendas across the world.
Recently, out of the 195 parties that signed the Paris Agreement, only 13 submitted emissions-cutting plans (“nationally determined contributions” or NDCs) by the February 10th deadline. The parties that have completed these pledges — meant to address how nations will cut emissions by 2035 — include Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, the U.K., and the U.S. Those that missed the deadline include some of the world’s largest economies, notably China, India, Russia, and the European Union.
The two recent studies forecasting a warming future serve as a wake-up call for nations to stick to ambitious climate plans and strive for immediate cuts in emissions.
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Jack Knudson is an assistant editor at Discover with a strong interest in environmental science and history. Before joining Discover in 2023, he studied journalism at the Scripps College of Communication at Ohio University and previously interned at Recycling Today magazine.
