And it hasn’t officially started yet.
The pending exit of term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom has created the most wide-open and crowded field for the state’s highest office in memory. The job pays $242,000 a year but provides an arguably more valuable national political platform and the ability to engage in trade, climate and other global affairs. By default the California governor, in a state of nearly 40 million people, is a national figure. Newsom is widely expected to launch a White House run after the Democrat’s term ends in early January 2027.
The lure of the powerful job attracted its latest candidate Thursday – Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, who served as a House manager in President Donald Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial and briefly sought his party’s 2020 presidential nomination
The eventual winner will also inherit a long list of problems, from an unchecked homeless crisis to multibillion-dollar projected future budget gaps.
The primary is June 2. Candidates can begin taking the first steps needed to qualify for the ballot next month. Newsom has not endorsed a successor.How do Democrats stand out among Democrats?Democrats are strongly favored to hold the seat in a liberal-leaning state where a Republican hasn’t won a statewide race in nearly two decades. Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by nearly 2-to-1 statewide, a staggering advantage. One challenge for the growing list of Democratic candidates will be trying to stand out when they largely agree on most issues – dealing with the state’s affordability crisis and countering Trump will top the agenda. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has positioned himself toward the center political lane and has been talking about his record of cutting taxes. He also boosted police force numbers and saw crime drop when he was LA’s mayor.
Billionaire businessman Tom Steyer, a recent entrant into the contest who ran for president in 2020, says the state can “break up the monopolistic power of utilities” to reduce its second-highest-in-the-nation electricity rates. How many is too many?
Even in a field of recognized names, there is no dominant candidate.
“It’s a five-way, six-way jump ball and that ball could go in any direction,” Democratic consultant Michael Trujillo said. “Any one of these Democrats running currently could be our next governor.”
In California, the top two vote-getters advance to the November general election, regardless of party. With many candidates dividing up the electorate, that means the two candidates who advance could get to November with just over 20% of the vote – and maybe less. The winning advantage separating the top two finishers from the rest of the field could be a percentage point or two.
Along with Swalwell, Villaraigosa and Steyer, other Democrats in the contest include former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, former Biden administration health secretary Xavier Becerra, former state controller Betty Yee; schools superintendent Tony Thurmond; and real estate developer Stephen Cloobeck. Attorney General Rob Bonta, who previously said he wasn’t running, is now reconsidering a bid.Unwelcome publicity sours Porter’s start
Porter – who in the House became a social media celebrity by brandishing a white board at congressional hearings while grilling CEOs – joined the unfolding race in March and moved quickly to establish herself as a leading contender.
But her momentum collapsed in early October, after a snippet of a recent TV interview went viral showing her in an awkwardly tense back-and-forth with a reporter. At one point, she threatened to walk out. Shortly afterward, a video surfaced of a 2021 interview showing her loudly berating a staffer.
After a deluge of online mockery, rivals quickly questioned whether she was too unsteady for the job. But Porter’s campaign lined up supporters to help her weather the fallout. It is unclear if the unflattering episode will influence voters.
Becerra’s name pulled into Sacramento scandal
Prosecutors allege longtime Becerra aide Sean McCluskie was at the center of a plan to steal money from one of Becerra’s dormant state campaign accounts to pad his salary after he accepted a job as Becerra’s chief of staff in Washington.
Becerra is a former House member and state attorney general.
Villaraigosa launched a digital ad spotlighting Becerra’s connection to the scandal. Becerra is not implicated in the indictment. But the ad attempts to raise doubts about his judgment and features clips from a TV interview in which Becerra said he knew payments were being made from his account but didn’t know they were being improperly used.A Republican surprise?
Even in a heavily Democratic state, Republicans can pull off surprises.
Last year, former baseball star Steve Garvey finished second in the U.S. Senate primary, besting Porter and then-Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee and advancing to the November election. He lost to now-Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff. The leading Republicans in the governor’s race – Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton – are hoping to slip through into November, given the large Democratic field dividing the vote.
There are other unknowns. Billionaire shopping mall developer Rick Caruso hasn’t ruled out a run, after losing his bid to become Los Angeles mayor.
