Europe frets as Ukraineâ€s front line begins to fracture

Good morning. Today, I bring you unsettling news from the front line in Ukraine — and what it means for EU contingency plans — and Laura reports on a pitch for how to tighten sanctions on Russiaâ€s shadow oil fleet.

Have a great weekend.

Alarm bells

Russia is threatening to make a major strategic breakthrough across Ukraineâ€s shaky front line, making stark the reality of the conflictâ€s dynamics even as Europeâ€s politicians fret about the geopolitical shifts taking place in the background.

Context: Russiaâ€s invasion of Ukraine will soon enter its 34th month. Russia has a manpower and materiel advantage, as Europe struggles to ramp up defence production and US president-elect Donald Trump vows to “end the war in 24 hours†after taking office.

Russian troops have intensified attacks across the 1,000km-long front line in recent months and are advancing at a faster rate than at any point since 2022. Since August, Moscow has captured more than 1,200 sq km.

Ukrainian officials have admitted that their defences are “crumblingâ€, and have stepped up deployments of medical personnel at the front in anticipation of heavy battles in the coming days and weeks, “particularly in the south and eastâ€. 

Yesterday, Russian forces briefly entered the town of Kupiansk in Ukraineâ€s eastern Kharkiv region, breaking Kyivâ€s frontline defences that had held firm for more than two years.

Kupiansk is a highly symbolic location. Ukraineâ€s liberation of the town in September 2022 was one of the key victories in its lightning counteroffensive that pushed back occupying Russian troops from vast swaths of the countryâ€s east.

Ukraineâ€s general staff said the attack was repelled, but the incursion suggests the frontline is now faltering in multiple directions.

Thatâ€s a major concern for EU capitals already scrambling to work out how they can maintain military support for Ukraine in the event that Trump orders the suspension of US security assistance.

EU leaders are also contemplating how to respond to Trumpâ€s likely demand for immediate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to force a ceasefire. It is a chilling prospect for Brussels that Russian President Vladimir Putin, feeling that his forces have the upper hand and are close to a major breakthrough, could reject that offer and instead push for a renewed offensive.

“Ukraine could attempt to fight on perhaps with increased European support. The consensus seems to be that, without US military support, Russia would make gains and eventually force Ukraine to the negotiating table,†writes William Jackson, head of emerging markets at Capital Economics, a research consultancy.

Chart du jour: On the move

Legal migration to some of the worldâ€s richest countries reached an all-time high in 2023, boosting the economy but also sparking a voter backlash.

In the shadows

As murky tankers continue to transport Russian oil in circumvention of western sanctions, the European parliament has urged better enforcement — and the European Public Prosecutorâ€s Office is ready to pick up the call, writes Laura Dubois.

Context: In response to Russiaâ€s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU and G7 countries banned their companies from providing ships or other services to Russian oil exports, unless the oil was sold below a certain price. In response, Moscow assembled its own fleet of vessels.

EU lawmakers yesterday adopted a resolution calling for further measures to cut this “key financial lifelineâ€. The resolution states that Russia has spent €9bn to build its “shadow fleet†of at least 600 tankers, which are often old and uninsured.

“These vessels are a major danger for the law of the sea and for the environment,†said liberal MEP Joachim Streit.

The EU has already directly sanctioned 27 tankers, and is planning to target more in a new sanctions package currently being negotiated, but more work is needed. MEPs believe that the EU already has an institution cut out for this work: the EPPO.

“When it comes to sanctions circumvention, there is no one better placed in this moment to fight those crimes,†European chief prosecutor Laura Kövesi told the FT.

She explained that EPPO is already cracking down on smuggling, an offence often committed as part of sanctions circumvention, which is itself now deemed a crime under EU law.

“Circumvention is not a national crime, it usually takes place on the territory of different member states or third countries . . . transferring this to our office would be much easier, and much faster,†said Kövesi.

Ideas to expand the EPPOâ€s powers have been discussed for several years, but it would require a change of law. “We need a revision of the regulation and we need member states to decide on our competence,†said Kövesi.

“At European level, we are the only available tool to make investigations and to prosecute,†she said.

What to watch today

1. European Commission presents its autumn economic forecast, 10.30am CET.

2. Hearing before the EU General Courtâ€s grand chamber on Covid-19 vaccine procurement case.

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• Woods for the trees: EU lawmakers have voted to in effect exempt most member states from a ban of commodities grown on deforested land.

• Gas spike: European gas prices have hit their highest level in a year on warnings about potential disruptions of Russian supplies.