With the China-US strategic rivalry as its backdrop, the region has become a primary theatre for military and political muscle-flexing. Violent clashes have escalated between the Philippines and China in recent years.
“At the Asean level, some countries are looking at Indonesia as a big brother that can deal with China, especially in regard to the South China Sea dispute,” said Dr Rahman Yaacob, noting that some countries may even expect Mr Prabowo, a former military man, to take a harder stance on this issue.
He noted that the MOU has no legal obligations, but said it is important to watch for any follow-up policy or approaches to see if “overlapping claims” are further acknowledged. “That is something that other Asean claimants will be watching and worried about.”
Mr Prabowo, who was in the US after his trip to China, said on Nov 14 that he would “always safeguard our sovereignty” when asked about the issue. He told reporters that adding partnerships is better than conflicts.
The President has ambitious plans, including raising economic growth to 8 per cent from the current 5 per cent within his first term, and eradicating poverty in his country. He recently assembled a team of economic advisers headed by Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs Luhut Pandjaitan.
“He is a person in a rush… And he doesn’t want to be seen just as a strongman without economic credentials,” said RSIS’ Dr Koh, adding that Mr Prabowo will prioritise economic development to meet domestic expectations.
“So, he might be willing to relent on (the position) to China in exchange for economic incentives.”
When asked to clarify the use of the term “overlapping claims” during an interview at The Straits Times Asia Future Summit on Nov 12 in Singapore, Mr Luhut said that the President could be suggesting a joint study to see if a “South China Sea Council” based on the model of the Arctic Council could be used to reduce tensions in the area.
“But we have to comply also to the international law and Unclos, which is very important,” he said.
The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum dedicated to discussing aspects of the Arctic inhabitants, development, environment as well as scientific research. Membership is limited to the eight states with territories above the Arctic Circle, including Canada, Denmark, Russia and the US.
Much like in the South China Sea, there have been clashes between the coastal states in the Arctic. But the Arctic Council provides a cooperative framework, with nations committed to international law and arbitration tribunals, treaties and demilitarised zones, among others. The Arctic Council does not address military issues or questions of security.
Asean is currently engaged in negotiations with China over a Code of Conduct (COC) on the South China Sea. However, Dr Koh is of the perspective that the controversy will have little impact on the talks, which have been slow-moving since they began in 2018.
“I don’t see this as having a game-changing effect on the COC negotiations. Rather, this reflects the division in Asean and the divided interests that they pursue vis-a-vis China,” he said.
Dr Alexander said he hopes there will be some clarity on the issue soon, as the President completes a series of working visits to Lima, Peru and Brazil for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and G-20 summits later in November.
“It is important for Indonesia to clarify the statement and tell other Asean nations that it is a bilateral deal and will not affect the grouping’s negotiations over the South China Sea.”
