America’s Space Race Is Over. So Who’s Left to Invest In? todayheadline

In some ways, 2024 was a great year for space investors.

With 138 combined Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship launches, SpaceX launched more rockets last year than all the rest of the world combined. That made 2024 a pretty terrific year for SpaceX. But for the rest of the space industry… not so much.

In a series of space investing disasters, 2024 saw:

• The destruction of Astra Space as a public company when, after scoring only two successful launches out of seven attempts and narrowly avoiding bankruptcy, the one-time billion-dollar company sold itself to its founders for just $0.50 per share. 
• ABL Space Systems abandon its dream of becoming a space launch company — and helping launch communications satellites into orbit — and announce plans to become a missile defense contractor for the Pentagon instead. 
• The private market valuation of Relativity Space — once a dark horse darling of space investors — roll into reverse at the same time as it’s been forced to abandon one rocket design and switch to a new one, which won’t be ready to fly for more than a year. 
• Virgin Galactic shutter its space tourism business (temporarily?) while it works to build a new spaceplane capable of resuming commercial flights in 2026. 

Speaking of which, all of this comes in the wake of 2023’s very public failure of Sir Richard Branson’s other space company, Virgin Orbit, which filed for bankruptcy and was broken up for parts.

Taken as a whole, America’s space start-ups kind of resemble a train wreck right now. And yet, there are still a few railcars intact. With the Great Space Shakeout of 2024 behind us, it’s starting to become clearer which space stocks investors should pay attention to.

The rise of Rocket Lab

First in the minds of investors lately has been Rocket Lab (RKLB -2.60%), the company that bought Virgin Orbit’s California manufacturing facility out of bankruptcy for a mere $16.1 million, and made it Rocket Lab’s own U.S. headquarters.

One monster contract win from the U.S. Space Force, an accelerating cadence of rocket launches, plus the prospect of a brand new rocket arriving in 2025 helped push up Rocket Lab’s stock price fivefold in 2024. Next to SpaceX, this company is now the second most prolific rocket launcher in the U.S.

Perhaps Rocket Lab’s most surprising announcement last year, though, was that its rockets are in such high demand that it’s actually able to raise its prices. Electron rockets in Q3 sold for an average of $8.4 million each. While Rocket Lab didn’t come out and say it, it seems the thinning out of competition from other small launchers — Virgin Orbit, Astra, and ABL — is giving Rocket Lab pricing power in this market.

On top of all this, investors anxiously wait to see if Rocket Lab will deliver its new Neutron rocket next year, and begin charging $50 million and up for launches on that much bigger platform. If it succeeds, CEO Sir Peter Beck has promised a “flip” to profitability for Rocket Lab.

Hey! Europe has rockets, too!

Meanwhile in Europe, Airbus (EADSY 2.33%) subsidiary Arianespace also seems to have survived the Great Space Shakeout — for now. After years of delays, the European continental space champion finally got its Ariane 6 rocket off the pad in July. However, six months after that event, the company still hasn’t followed up its success with a second launch.

Going forward, the attractiveness of Airbus stock to investors, in terms of its Arianespace holdings, will depend on Arianespace’s ability to increase launch volume and reduce launch costs to rival SpaceX and Rocket Lab. While Continental pride will probably ensure there’s a market for Arianespace’s services in Europe no matter the cost, I wouldn’t buy Airbus stock until it proves Arianespace can compete on the world stage.

Space dinosaurs still roam America

Last but not least, a few words seem required of America’s other space companies:

Boeing (BA 1.28%) and Lockheed Martin (LMT 0.71%), joint owners of United Launch Alliance (ULA), are the great “show me” story of 2025. Like Arianespace, ULA successfully launched its new rocket, the Vulcan Centaur, in 2024. And unlike Arianespace, ULA got a second Vulcan launch off before the year ended.

The second didn’t go off entirely without a hitch, however, and ULA has been cooling its heels since October waiting for permission to launch a third time. Management insists approval is imminent, and has promised investors they will see as many as 20 launches this year, and at prices competitive with Arianespace, if not quite as cheap as SpaceX. If it delivers on that promise, ULA will take a lot of investors by surprise, and could set the stage for a revival of the space divisions at both Lockheed and, especially, Boeing.

And finally, Northrop Grumman (NOC 0.25%). Often an afterthought in America’s space race, launching smaller rockets than ULA’s, and launching them less frequently, Northrop Grumman has teamed up with privately held Firefly Aerospace to inject a bit of start-up energy into its business. Together, the two companies are building a new version of Northrop’s Antares rocket (outfitted with Firefly engines), and also an entirely new rocket called the MLV.

Neither new rocket is expected to fly until 2026, granted. But Northrop isn’t out of this space race yet. It’s still worth keeping an eye on as it makes its final push to remain a viable competitor in space.