A sleeping giant of a volcano is stirring in its underwater bed.
The volcano, tucked underneath a submerged peak called Axial Seamount, is the most active volcano in the Pacific Northwest. Seismic activity, including hundreds of small earthquakes a day, indicate an eruption may be forthcoming — perhaps by the end of 2025, according to a blog kept by Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist who’s been closely monitoring activity associated with Axial Seamount, for years.
Volcano Wake-up Time
That seismic activity is a harbinger. “An eruption does not seem imminent, but it can’t do this forever,” Chadwick and his colleague, University of North Carolina geophysicist Scott Nooner, wrote in an Oregon State University blog post.
The volcano, about 300 miles off the coast of Oregon and a mile beneath the ocean’s surface, is among the most monitored in the world and has been under observation since 1997. When the volcano erupts, it likely won’t be cataclysmic — or even apparent to anyone above water. Since Axial Seamount is shaped from thin layers of lava, an eruption will likely crack open at the surface. Magma will then likely ooze out, rather than explode into the air. It is unlikely its eruption will produce a tsunami.
Observers use a variety of geophysical, chemical, and biological sensors, as well as a still and video cameras to watch for signs of magma flow. That instrumentation on Axial Caldera’s summit makes it the the most advanced underwater volcanic observatory in the world.
Read More: One of Alaska’s Most Famous Volcanoes May Be Waking Up
Predictions Based on the Past
Researchers who have monitored this underwater volcano since 1997 can base their predictions on some precedents: Axial Seamount erupted in 1998, 2011, and 2015. Observers say they see the same signs of swelling at its base that preceded the previous eruptions. That swelling is a result of rising magma pressing beneath the mountain’s thin surface.
A study from 2024 documented the volcano’s plumbing. The researchers noted multiple reservoirs of magma sitting asymmetrically beneath the Earth’s crust. They also traced the molten rock’s passage into the mountain via a seafloor crack.
Although monitoring Axial Seamount won’t save any lives (because it won’t endanger any), doing so will better help predict eruptions in other areas. Carefully observing and recording every tremor beneath it will give scientists a better understanding of the factors leading up to a volcano’s eruption.
In doing so, this sleeping giant will help generate important wake-up calls near other volcanoes.
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Before joining Discover Magazine, Paul Smaglik spent over 20 years as a science journalist, specializing in U.S. life science policy and global scientific career issues. He began his career in newspapers, but switched to scientific magazines. His work has appeared in publications including Science News, Science, Nature, and Scientific American.
