Analysis-Freeport-McMoRan poised to gain from Trump's copper tariff against peers with few options

Analysis-Freeport-McMoRan poised to gain from Trump’s copper tariff against peers with few options

By Ernest Scheyder

(Reuters) -Freeport-McMoRan could see a $1.6-billion boost to annual profit if President Donald Trump’s copper tariff materializes, a benefit driven by the firm’s role as the largest U.S. producer with more expansion options than rivals.

Responsible for 60% of U.S. copper output, Phoenix-based Freeport has since the 19th century cultivated U.S. mine projects that have decades of growth potential without the need for fresh permitting.

Other companies have struggled due to the stubborn reality of American mining: It takes years to build a U.S. mine.

Trump announced on Wednesday a 50% tariff on imports of the metal used in construction, electronics, and nearly every part of the economy. It would be the first time Washington has imposed a copper tariff if enacted by Trump’s August 1 start date.

The initial announcement on Tuesday, which pushed Freeport stock up 5%, sparked questions about where Trump hopes to procure the metal, given longstanding hurdles to building mines and smelters, and few options outside of Freeport’s seven U.S. copper mines.

“The longer-term aim of the Trump administration may be for the U.S. to be fully self-sufficient in copper, but mines take too long to develop for this to be achieved in less than a 10-year time horizon,” said Jefferies analyst Chris LaFemina.

The U.S. imports roughly half of its copper needs, mostly from Chile, Canada, and Peru. China is the world’s largest smelter and consumer of copper, with global demand poised to jump at least 60% by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.

Jefferies singled out Freeport as the company expected to benefit most from Trump’s tariffs. Controlling four of the five largest U.S. copper mines, Freeport sells all of its U.S. product inside the country, more than any other company.

The copper is sold at U.S. Comex copper prices, which have jumped since Trump first suggested potential tariffs in February, boosting the company’s bottom line.

Freeport in April estimated it would reap a profit windfall of at least $800 million annually from higher prices should a copper tariff take effect.

The April estimate was based on U.S. copper prices of $4.84 per pound, a premium of roughly 60 cents per pound to benchmark LME copper prices. The premium is now roughly double, equating to about $1.6 billion in additional annual EBITDA for Freeport, the company told Reuters. It earned $10 billion in EBITDA in 2024.

Freeport declined to comment on the full tariff plan until it can review details.

RISING IMPORTS

U.S. refined copper imports have jumped more than sixfold since 2014, even as production slipped 20%, according to U.S. Geological Survey data. The country has nearly 30 years’ worth of supply within its borders.

As mines age, they must expand or be replaced. Yet mines are deeply unpopular across much of the United States, resulting in drawn-out regulatory decisions. It takes an average of nearly 29 years to build a U.S. mine, the second-longest time globally behind Zambia, a 2024 study from consultancy S&P Global showed.

Unlike factories for furniture or other consumer goods – which can be built in a year or two – mines require geological exploration, a permitting process that can stretch longer than a decade, and sometimes face opposition from Indigenous or conservation groups. Construction can take more than three years.

Proposed U.S. copper projects from BHP, Rio Tinto, Northern Dynasty Minerals, Antofagasta, and others have been delayed for more than a decade.

The U.S. only has three copper smelters to process metal for use in making wires and pipes, although one has been idled since 2019. In 1995, the U.S. had seven copper smelters.

Freeport CEO Kathleen Quirk told Reuters in March that any levies could affect the global economy. “We are kind of the poster child for American copper production,” Quirk said.

Freeport has plans to leach copper from old waste rock at its U.S. mines previously thought worthless. By 2027, leaching could boost Freeport’s U.S. output by 800 million pounds of copper annually.

Several of the company’s U.S. mines, including Bagdad and Lone Star in Arizona, have room to grow. Freeport said in March it might expand its U.S. smelter.

In Utah, Rio Tinto operates the Kennecott copper mine – the world’s deepest open-pit facility – and is undertaking a major expansion. Rio is also trying to develop its Resolution Copper project in Arizona, but faces Indigenous opposition.

Rio said it has a “strong desire to invest more in American copper, and we see significant opportunities to grow our business in the United States.”

KGHM, Lundin and Grupo Mexico are among the smaller U.S. copper producers.

One supply lever for Trump could be to ban exports of copper scrap. Copper, like all critical minerals, can be recycled. The U.S. exports more than 500,000 metric tons of copper scrap annually, more than the largest U.S. copper mine’s annual production.

(Reporting by Ernest Scheyder; additional reporting by Polina Devitt in London; Editing by Veronica Brown and Rod Nickel)