By Georgina McCartney
HOUSTON (Reuters) -The falling number of oil and gas rigs deployed across the United States is reaching a level that would indicate onshore crude output from the world’s top producer could fall in early 2026.
U.S. energy companies are producing record amounts of oil, much of it from onshore shale fields. New techniques and technology, like longer lateral wells, automation and more powerful equipment, have driven productivity gains across the industry that have allowed oil companies to pump more with fewer rigs and less capital.
But the number of rigs working in U.S. shale fields has almost fallen so low – and is projected to keep falling – that those improvements will not be enough to keep onshore U.S. production rising, or even steady in some basins, analysts say.
The anticipated decline comes as U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to raise oil and gas output, and as OPEC+ lifts its production targets in an attempt to take back market share from the U.S. and other rival producers.
In April 2019, the last time over 1,000 rigs were consistently deployed across the U.S., oil output stood at 12.14 million barrels per day (bpd). Today, there are just 540 rigs in operation, while output has jumped to some 13.5 million bpd.
Those close to the industry say that balance is fast approaching a tipping point, with analysts forecasting the rig count to fall further and U.S. onshore production to subsequently decline next year and into 2027.
Lower 48 oil output is expected to fall by 200,000 bpd next year, followed by a further decline of 130,000 bpd in 2027, as operators drop rigs in response to persistently low oil prices, Wood Mackenzie analysts said.
At the current rig count of 540, energy analytics firm, Novi Labs forecasts a 400,000 bpd drop in lower 48 production by the end of next year, with losses upwards of 200,000 bpd within the first few months of 2026.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration in July also said it expects recent declines in rig counts and well completions to continue, pointing to lower crude prices.
ALL EYES ON THE PERMIAN
The recent decline in oil prices has prompted companies to shed rigs at an elevated rate. In the Permian basin – the largest U.S. oil field, spanning from Texas to New Mexico – some 24 rigs were dropped over a ten-week period beginning in May, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes. During that period, prices plunged as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accelerated plans to increase output.
Companies have been using newer, more efficient oil rigs, with improvements like autonomous drilling capabilities, more powerful horsepower, and technology that enables them to move without being taken down and rebuilt.
“Right now virtually all operating rigs are the most efficient and highly upgraded rigs available. Drillers saw big efficiency gains because they upgraded to a bigger rig but there are no bigger rigs left to upgrade to,” said Paul Mosvold, president and COO of Scandrill, whose company has seven rigs in the Haynesville and four in the Permian.
“Now it is incremental and tweaking, whereas before it was a wholesale upgrade. Those things aren’t going to make the level of efficiency gains we’ve seen in the last few years,” Mosvold added.
Energy consultancies have similar estimates for the number of rigs needed to keep production steady in the Permian Basin, ranging between 240 and 260.
The Permian rig count last fell by one in the week to August 1, to 259, the lowest since September 2021, according to Baker Hughes.
“We have seen a 25% improvement over the last few years in rig efficiency, but the rig count has fallen over 30% over that same period. Put simply, the rig count declines have begun to outpace drilling efficiency gains,” said Brandon Myers, head of research at Novi Labs.
“This is a recent development,” he added.
Market intelligence firm Energy Aspects expects the Permian rig count to continue falling, slipping below its own modeled 255 threshold for steady production, early next year. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie sees that basin’s rig count falling to 245 in early 2026 as prices fall due to higher OPEC+ output.
EFFICIENCY GAINS AND WELL PRODUCTIVITY
The Permian has been at the heart of the U.S. shale revolution, propelling the country to the top spot in the league of global oil producers. Output there is expected to reach 6.58 million bpd this month, more than triple what it produced a decade ago in August 2015, according to the EIA.
In the Permian’s Midland basin, oil companies have raised the number of feet drilled per month per rig, or drilling efficiency, by 25% since the first quarter of 2023, according to Novi Labs. In 2024 around 40% of laterals in Midland were over 2.5 miles long, compared with 15% in 2021.
Despite improvements to drilling technologies, oil wells in the Permian basin are becoming less productive as operators have drilled through a lot of the best rock. Those less productive wells cost more to drill and are producing more unwanted byproducts such as gas and water, and less oil.
The Permian’s Delaware and Midland sub-basins have seen oil per foot drilled fall 8% so far in 2025 compared with last year’s average, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a July note.
“If the rig count drops don’t turn around soon, we’re going to see U.S. production declines well into 2026, including in the Permian basin,” said Energy Aspects analyst Jesse Jones. He anticipates Permian production, which currently stands at 6.55 million bpd, to fall by 150,000 bpd to 6.25 million bpd in 2026, due to fewer rigs and completions as well as a degradation in well productivity.
Declines in oil production as a result of a falling rig count will take six to nine months to show, due to the time it takes to drill and complete wells, analysts said.
Novi Labs expects Permian production will fall slightly by the end of the year, before dipping into the sub-6.5 million bpd range in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Wood Mackenzie sees Permian output growth flattening in 2026 at 6.55 million bpd. The EIA projects output to average 6.53 million bpd in 2025, before edging down to 6.5 million bpd in 2026.
“In 2020, when the rig count fell, operators drilled the best rock they were ever going to have. That high-quality inventory doesn’t exist in that quantity anymore, and operators won’t be able to do that again to the same degree,” said Novi Labs’ Myers.
(Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston, additional reporting by Arathy Somasekhar; Editing by Liz Hampton and Nick Zieminski)
