Many American Jews and a minority of Israeli Jews share deep concerns about a second Trump presidency: will it strengthen or weaken American democracy and its global standing, and which faction of Trump’s policy team will prevail – the isolationist wing or the interventionist camp?
This is not to say those same people did not have real concerns about the nature of a potential Harris administration, especially on the question of Israel. However, we are now after the election, and this question becomes academic.
The initial appointments that relate to national security and foreign relations look hawkish and are certainly filled with politicians known for their stridently positive opinions about Israel. Marco Rubio, the designated secretary of state, has been a powerful advocate for Israel for many years.
The ambassador designated to Israel is Mike Huckabee, a pastor and former Arkansas governor who has also been to Israel many times as a tour guide. Yanir Kozin, in an early interview on the IDF radio station, said he would welcome the annexation of Judea and Samaria, but that policy will be up to the president.
Kozin also interviewed former Efrat mayor Oded Revivi on the same topic, who also sounded a note of caution, having witnessed the prospect of annexation unravel in Washington, D.C., in 2020. Along with Mike Waltz as national security advisor and Pete Hegseth as defense secretary, this is a powerful pro-Israel group.
Pro-Israel, but not the whole story
These appointments will definitely find favor with Israel’s right-wing government and public, and no doubt Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be relieved not to be faced with a Harris administration. Even under Trump, the prospect of isolationist appointments representing the more hard-core America First agenda would have been a poor signal for Israel.
This though, is not the whole story. Opportunities lay ahead, but not without difficult political decisions. Jonathan Rynhold, professor of political science and expert on American-Israel relations, points out factors we should consider when looking at the strategic outlook given the coming change in administration.
The first point he makes is that the thread connecting his appointments thus far is the personal loyalty that he feels from the appointees. Just as in the first Trump administration, they will know as soon as that is not the case, they will be out on their ear.
This need for hyper-loyalty will likely apply to relations with Netanyahu too, who was in hot water with Trump in 2020 after congratulating President Biden on a victory that Trump has never accepted.
The second aspect that Rynhold points out is the transactional nature of Trump’s politics, which will include how he sees the region. If the target for Trump is a grand deal that includes Saudi Arabia, this will challenge some of the more optimistic assumptions being made by the far or hard-right sections of Netanyahu’s coalition.
The most obvious right-wing marker is Finance Minister and leader of the Religious Zionist Party Bezalel Smotrich, who tweeted on November 11, within a week of Trump’s victory, “2025 – The year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria.”
RYNHOLD ADDS that if Israel is offered a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia – which includes the principle of a two-state solution (even if far across the horizon) and nearer-term commitments on the control of Gaza and the position of the Palestinian Authority – Netanyahu may have a difficult decision to make, choosing between his commitments to Smotrich and their combined right-wing base and the potential diplomatic wrath of a president known for taking things personally.
In a recent interview in Makor Rishon, former Knesset speaker and current chair of the Knesset Foreign Affairs Committee, MK Yuli Edelstein expressed a similar concern.
“I spoke about sovereignty long before it was popular.” But he reflected that “there will be two problems: opposition from the Left, but also opposition from our own side.” And why would there be opposition from the right?
“When we extend sovereignty to Ma’aleh Adumim and Gush Etzion as a first step, there will be those who rise up to shout, ‘You have sold the Land of Israel. You have made concessions!’ There is no such reality, wherein a Trump administration or indeed any other constellation that we will receive everything in one go.”
Edelstein knows what he’s talking about. When Trump offered Israel the possibility of annexation under the “Peace to Prosperity” plan in January 2020, it was rejected by the settler movement leadership for exactly those reasons. It was not an immediate and full annexation and opened the real, if distant, possibility of some form of Palestinian sovereignty.
Shalom Lipner is a shrewd commentator with experience working with seven Israeli prime ministers. In Foreign Affairs he describes how the political challenges for Netanyahu are in direct tension with his diplomatic opportunities.
He predicts that “Netanyahu will have to read the tea leaves correctly. He needs to seize the moment and wind down Israel’s wars before they begin to cause more harm than good and – no less fatefully – create a rift with Trump.
If Netanyahu can stand up to his coalition partners, he might still be able to end the conflicts and leave Trump the clean desk he asked for. But time is short.”
This may demand uncharacteristically bold decision-making from Netanyahu.
It has always been my personal view that a one-sided annexation of Judea and Samaria would be a strategic disaster for Israel, taking it down the road of becoming a post-democratic country. This for me would be a betrayal of my Jewish and Zionist values.
A broad Middle Eastern coalition, building on the Abraham Accords, could offer an alternate route, a possibility that Hamas wanted to prevent at the cost of the destruction of much of Gaza following their heinous attack on October 7.
Ironically, Trump’s and perhaps Netanyahu’s desire to secure their places in history books, as well as Netanyahu’s understanding of the positive geopolitical change a deal with Saudi Arabia would bring, might be just the circumstance that ends the fantasy of significant parts of the religious Right.
We may witness major developments in the Middle East under the Trump regime, and we should all hope, no matter our political views, that they lead to a secure future for Israel as a Jewish and democratic country.
The writer, a founding partner of Goldrock Capital, is the founder of The Institute for Jewish and Zionist Research. He is a former chairman of Gesher, World Bnei Akiva, and the Coalition for Haredi Employment.
