The ceasefire in Gaza will have wide-ranging implications across the Middle East. How this takes place will take time to process. This is because the ceasefire has phases, and it is not clear what may come next. However, we know already how those who oppose Israel will want to spin the ceasefire. Hamas is portraying it as a victory. Pro-Iran groups will see it as a victory as well. Qatar and Turkey, which back Hamas, will also see it as a victory.
For instance, Al-Akhbar media in Lebanon writes that the deal is leading to Israeli concerns about Hamas returning to power. Iran has said it will continue to support the Palestinian cause. The pro-Houthi Masirah TV also said that Hamas has shown its skill in negotiating the deal.
For media that are more critical of Hamas or tend to be in the camp of Arab states that are not backing Hamas, there is likely concern that this could fan the flames of extremism in the region. What this means is that Hamas is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and that could lead to many affiliated parties feeling that they are on the upswing. In the UAE they are watching closely what happens next. Al-Ain media in the UAE reports on the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza and also Israeli concerns about Hamas returning to power. The media in the Gulf are also watching closely what may happen with Netanyahu’s ruling coalition.
Concern in the West Bank and PA
There will be concern in the West Bank and the Palestinian Authority that Hamas may leverage the prisoner releases to come to power. Hamas structured the deal to take place over many months so it can slowly use this to build power to take over the West Bank. This will lead to concern in Ramallah and also likely in Jordan.
Cairo appears to have played both sides, quietly enabling Hamas over the last years. This may have been part of a deal with Turkey and Qatar to get them not to support the Brotherhood in Egypt, in exchange for Cairo looking the other way as Hamas made plans. This is concerning and Cairo’s role is still unclear. Egypt does seem to fear the outcome of the change in power in Damascus.
The fact Hamas is declaring victory and there is a new government in Damascus has implications for the whole region. HTS, which propelled Ahmed Shara’a to power in Damascus to replace the Assad regime, has roots in political Islam. This means that a new trend of Islamic parties could be on the rise, the first time since the 1990s when these parties also were on the rise. This is not ISIS-type extremism, but it is also not soft and fuzzy, it spans a spectrum from Hamas to the new leaders in Damascus.
This dovetails with over changes in the region. There is a new leadership in Lebanon. There are many things in transition in the Middle East. This means that many countries such as the UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Israel will need to pay attention to what may come next.
The Houthis in Yemen are also likely declaring victory. This could have reverberations in Libya. It could also impact other trends. The incoming Trump administration has its own plans for the region. The Biden administration’s concept of “integration” doesn’t appear to have worked.
What might come next? The Arab League and other regional groups will want to manage things. In addition, Iran will not give up its role without a fight in places like Iraq. Many things are in flux. The Hamas claims of victory could impact the whole Middle East.
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