The US Department of Defense is “drafting plans to withdraw all US troops from Syria,” NBC reported on Tuesday.
The report claimed that “two US defense officials told NBC News” about the development. In itself, the idea that the Pentagon would draw up this contingency is not that surprising.
The first Trump administration attempted to withdraw from Syria twice, in 2018 and 2019. It is evident that the administration will soon be evaluating its policy on Syria.
The US sent forces to Syria in 2015 as part of the anti-ISIS campaign. The US works with the Syrian Democratic Forces in eastern Syria. The SDF defeated ISIS in 2019, and since then, they have been fighting ISIS cells and controlling a large swath of eastern Syria east of the Euphrates River. The US also backs a small garrison at Tanf in Syria near the Jordanian and Iraqi border.
Tanf is a lonely garrison, but it is important because it is backed by a group called the Syrian Free Army. This group, not to be confused with the Free Syrian Army, which was the name of Syrian rebel groups, is an independent force made up of men from the Homs governorate of Syria. Many of them come from areas near Palmyra.
According to a report in The Long War Journal, the leader of the US-backed group was recently at a January 29 meeting in Damascus supporting the new government in Syria, which is led by Ahmed Shari’a.
Salem Turki al Antri, the Commander of the US-backed Syrian Free Army, attended the event. This is important as it gives the US potential leverage and shows how important the mission at Tanf is in retrospect.
Plans for a full withdrawal
According to the NBC report, “President Donald Trump and officials close to him recently expressed interest in pulling US troops out of Syria, the officials said, leading Pentagon officials to begin drawing up plans for a full withdrawal in 30, 60 or 90 days.”
Things are moving fast in Syria because the new government in Damascus is acting with pragmatism and is stabilizing the country. Recently, Damascus sent forces into Afrin in northwest Syria.
It is moving to create deals and secure the country. If it does a deal with the SDF, then the US’ role in eastern Syria might not be necessary. Trump could say it has been “mission accomplished” in eastern Syria.
The Kurds in eastern Syria have been worried about a new Turkish invasion, which happened in 2019 when the US said it would withdraw. Israeli officials have expressed for the Kurds.
However, if the Kurds can get a deal with Damascus, then everything might work out this time. Time will tell. The question is if the talk about a US withdrawal will change Turkey’s calculations or not.
There are up to 2,000 US troops in Syria. They play a role at several bases and posts east of the Euphrates. They help the SDF fight ISIS. There are also troops at Tanf.
The NBC report also followed a report at Israel’s KAN about the US potentially withdrawing from Syria. These reports concern Kurds and many Kurdish voices hope the US will not withdraw in a chaotic fashion that appears to abandon US partners.
The big question is what comes next in Syria and how the government of Shara’a is able to navigate the differing agendas in the country.
For Israel, Syria is important. It doesn’t want to have Syria become a threat again. The evidence is that Shara’a has generally been positive and pragmatic so far. He recently met with the Saudis and now also with Turkey and held a call with the French President.
Many things appear to be moving in the right direction. The US role in eastern Syria was to fight ISIS. Will ISIS feel it can re-emerge if the US leaves? That is a key question that will need to be answered.
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