The IDF withdrew most of its troops from Lebanon on Tuesday, 4½ months after launching its ground invasion targeting Hezbollah on October 1. The exception: five strategic areas just inside Israel’s northern neighbor, where new outposts were built and troops will remain for the time being.
Exactly how long will depend on Lebanon, and the degree to which the Lebanese Army acts against Hezbollah and prevents it from again turning southern Lebanese villages into armed fortifications in civilian disguise, housing heavy weaponry and hosting terrorists primed and ready to attack the Jewish state.
The withdrawal is part of the ceasefire agreement that took effect on November 27. The five remaining outposts are to ensure that Hezbollah cannot entrench itself in the border area.
Lebanon, according to a statement issued by the Lebanese Presidency, will consider any remaining IDF presence on its territory an “occupation” and reserve the right “to employ all means” to ensure Israel’s full withdrawal.
Well, here’s a creative way to ensure that withdrawal: uphold the terms of the ceasefire agreement.
Why did Hezbollah gain power?
This means ensuring Hezbollah fighters withdraw north of the Litani River, dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and deploying the Lebanese army to southern Lebanon and the border.Once that happens, Israel can consider pulling back fully behind the international border in accordance with the ceasefire deal. But not before.
Israel has had unfortunate experience with troop withdrawals from Lebanon, having done so already on two separate occasions. The first was in a rushed and chaotic manner in May 2000, the second in 2006 under the auspices of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 that put an end to the Second Lebanon War.
Both turned out to be disasters. Hezbollah, with Iran’s generous assistance, quickly filled the vacuum Israel left behind, turning the territory into a launching pad for future attacks.
This happened for several reasons. Chief among them: Israel’s reluctance, after withdrawing, to take significant steps to prevent Hezbollah from taking over, not wanting to get pulled back into the “Lebanese morass.”
This was especially true following the Second Lebanon War. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 explicitly called for Hezbollah to move north of the Litani and be disarmed, but none of those conditions were implemented. The resolution was openly and blatantly disregarded, yet Israel did nothing. Instead, it stood by as Hezbollah forces moved into villages within rock-throwing distance of Israeli border communities, and watched as Hezbollah’s rocket and missile arsenal ballooned ten-fold from some 15,000 before the 2006 war to an estimated 150,000 at the start of the recent round of fighting.
If this pattern of failed withdrawals is to change, then things must be fundamentally different this time. The decision to keep the five IDF outposts inside Lebanon until the Lebanese live up to their part of the agreement indicates Israel has internalized that lesson.
Upon the military’s withdrawal of troops from southern Lebanon, Defense Minister Israel Katz declared on Tuesday: “The IDF will continue to enforce [the ceasefire] vigorously and without compromise against any Hezbollah violation.”
We fervently hope this is not an empty promise. Only determined action will prevent past mistakes from repeating.
So far, the signs are encouraging. According to an Army Radio report Tuesday, Israel identified some 230 violations since the ceasefire went into effect. “The vast majority” of these infringements were dealt with by the Lebanese Army after Israel complained to the US-chaired enforcement mechanism established under the ceasefire agreement. Those not dealt with by the Lebanese army? Israel took care of them itself.
The determination that the Jewish state shows here will also have ripple effects elsewhere. If it proves that it will enforce agreements to the letter, the message will be clear not just to Lebanon, but to Hamas as well: Jerusalem will not allow past mistakes to repeat, and any violation of a deal reached that threatens Israeli security will be dealt with immediately and with deadly force.
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