The recent warning issued by US President Trump to Ukrainian President Zelensky that Ukraine is “gambling with World War III” has given many people pause. But is the world really on the cusp of such a catastrophe? I don’t think so – at least not tomorrow.
The fact is that unlike the situation that existed at the onset of World War II, there is no country in the world today except for the United States capable of starting World War III with any hope of success.
World War II was started by Germany and Japan, who at least thought that they had the military capability to win, augmented by the intent to conquer. While the democratic West won the battle, there were nearly 15 million military casualties and almost 38 million civilian deaths, a terribly high price to pay for freedom. And, of course, we need to remember that victory by the West was not assured until well into the war itself.
What is the situation today?
Russia, in spite of all its bluster, is in no position to start a global conflagration. Their economy is in the toilet, interest rates are over 21%, almost a million Russian troops have been killed in the fighting with Ukraine, large portions of the middle class have left the country or are leaving, there is unrest in Siberia as well as in other areas of the country, and their military capability has been decimated by losses in the last three years of the conflict with Ukraine.
China, often seen as a potential aggressor as well, is also in no position to begin World War III. According to a recent report by the World Bank: “Over the medium term, China’s economy is expected to undergo a structural slowdown. Potential growth has been on a declining trend, reflecting adverse demographics, tepid productivity growth, and rising constraints to a debt-fueled, investment-driven growth model. Structural reforms are needed to reinvigorate the shift to more balanced high-quality growth.”
In spite of China being the world’s second largest economy after the US, it has way too many internal problems to even think of starting a world war.
As for Iran, trigger-happy as they may be to get everyone fighting each other, Israel has reduced their military capability so that, at least over the next 12-18 months, they have no capacity to engage the world militarily. With the sanctions being reimposed by the Trump administration, their economic power will be reduced as well.
Nevertheless, the world is not out of the woods just yet on this score. The seeming decision by the new administration in Washington, whether implied or articulated, for the US to no longer be the guarantor of the security of its allies, creates a level of discomfort among many countries that will most likely cause many of them to take certain actions to protect themselves.
How would they do this? It is a good bet that most will try to develop a nuclear arsenal to offset those of nations who presently have such weapons available for use. Everyone knows that Iran is capable of achieving this in a matter of weeks, while there is no doubt many other countries as well would decide to move in this direction.
This is most likely where the threat of World War III has the highest probability of eventuating into something real. Absent the nuclear non-proliferation treaties that were in place in the years following the end of World War II, there are no longer any restraints on nations who want to move in this direction.
History has taught us that conflicts are often touched off by small incidents that then become the reasons someone “pulls the plug,” as it were, out of fear that another country will act first. The assassination of Archduke Ferdinand of Austria in 1914, for example, was the presumed trigger that set off World War I. The more hands that have access to the nuclear button, the higher the risk of an inadvertent mistake being made.
Hopefully, the world will not find itself on the precipice of another world war. If fought with nuclear weapons, it would be good to recall the observation of Albert Einstein, who said: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
Let us hope that cooler heads will prevail – a real challenge in this perilous time – and that we will figure out how to retreat from the precipice of a war that could destroy most of humanity.
The writer, who has lived in Israel for 41 years, is the founder and chair of Atid EDI Ltd., an international business development consultancy. He is also the founder and chair of the American State Offices Association, former national president of the Association of Americans and Canadians in Israel, and a past chairperson of the board of the Pardes Institute of Jewish Studies.
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