The coalition currently does not have the necessary majority to pass the 2025 state budget, which must pass by March 31, or else the government falls.
The coalition officially lost its majority after three members of the Agudat Yisrael party (the Hassidic wing of United Torah Judaism), Housing Minister Yizhak Golknopf and MKs Yaakov Tessler and Moshe Roth, announced on Thursday that they would vote against the budget if a bill to exempt a majority of haredi yeshiva students from IDF service did not pass first.
The bill is currently being prepared in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee but is unlikely to pass by the end of the month.
The coalition currently has a 62-58 majority, after the departure of Otzma Yehudit’s six MKs in January. Goldknopf is currently not a Member of Knesset. Ahead of the budget vote, Goldknopf is expected to resign as a minister in order to regain voting power in the Knesset, as part of what is known as the Norwegian Law.
This will push out Degel Hatorah’s MK Eliyahu Baruchi. However, in this scenario Deputy Transportation Minister Uri Maklev may resign from the government as well in order to regain his voting right in the Knesset. This will push Roth out of the Knesset, leaving Goldknopf and Tessler as the UTJ members expected to vote against the budget.
Still, their two votes alone are enough to bring the tally of votes to a 60-60 tie, in which case the budget will not pass, and the government will fall.
A lot could change by end of month
While this scenario is possible, a lot could still change by the end of the month. For example, if Israel reinvades Gaza, Otzma Yehudit will rejoin the government and support the budget, thus giving it the votes it needs to pass.
On the other hand, other UTJ members may also end up voting against the budget, such as MK Yisrael Eichler, who belongs to Hassidut Belze.
The Belze Rebbe has preferred to refrain from making a public threat at the moment and is waiting to see what will happen at the end of the month, according to a source.
In addition, in the case of a 60-60 tie, it is enough for one member of the opposition to abstain in the vote in order for it to pass. Coalition leaders would likely try to convince at least one opposition MK to abstain in exchange for political capital, such as a future spot on the Likud list, a promise to advance a specific bill by that MK, etc.
Potential candidates to abstain are opposition MKs who are acting independently of their parties, such as Almog Cohen from Otzma Yehudit and Idan Rol, formerly of Yesh Atid. Â
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