Before departing for the Middle East this week, US President Donald Trump promised something “as big as it gets.”
“We will have a very, very big announcement to make,” he said. “And I won’t tell you on what. But it is really, really positive.”
Speculation abounded. Was he about to announce a breakthrough on Iran? Saudi Arabia’s entry into the Abraham Accords? A dramatic hostage deal and end to the war in Gaza?
None of that materialized. What he did do, however, was lift sanctions on Syria and become the first US president in 25 years to meet with a Syrian leader. Not insignificant – but hardly the seismic announcement he hinted at.
This episode revealed not just the limits of Trump’s follow-through, but the nature of his foreign policy. Grand declarations, vague promises, and sudden pivots are features of his style. The goal is often less about substance than about maximizing leverage and scoring bombastic headlines. Trump may feel a strong affinity toward Israel, but his overriding priority is clear: he is looking out for what he defines as America’s interests – and increasingly, those are transactional in nature. So Israel must do the same.
That was evident throughout his visit to the Gulf. While Israel once named a Golan hill “Trump Heights” to honor the president, Qatar came bearing a different kind of gift: a $400 million jet and pledges for $1.2 trillion in US-bound investments. Investment pledges from Saudi Arabia and the UAE combined added another $2 trillion.
This is Trump’s model of diplomacy: transactional, optics-driven, and bottom-line focused. His decision to lift sanctions on Syria was summed up with characteristic bluntness: “Oh, what I do for the [Saudi] crown prince.” Decades of US policy reversed – not for ideology, but for return on investment.
Israel cannot play the game at Gulf levels, nor should it try. But it must recognize that the rules have changed. The alliance with the US, which relied heavily on shared values and historical ties in the past, must now be augmented heavily by deliverables. It must be constantly reinforced with strategic returns that matter to Washington’s current leadership, especially economic ones.
That means highlighting Israeli innovation that creates American jobs, defense and intelligence collaboration that enhances US readiness and security, and trilateral ventures with Gulf states that position Israel as an engine of regional prosperity. It also means doubling down on quiet diplomacy, not just in the White House, but throughout Congress, the Pentagon, and key constituencies whose support will be critical if and when policy friction arises.
But engagement alone is no guarantee. In a world increasingly driven by deals, not values, even the most carefully cultivated alliances can fray when interests diverge. That’s why Israel must also prepare for a more difficult possibility: that it may need to act alone – even under a Trump administration.
In his 2015 speech to Congress criticizing then-president Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu famously declared, “Even if Israel has to stand alone, Israel will stand.” At the time, few imagined that the same resolve might be needed with Trump in office, but recent events suggest otherwise.
Houthis continue targeting Israel after US declares ceasefire
Two weeks ago, the president unilaterally declared a ceasefire with the Houthis – even as they continued launching attacks against Israel. Netanyahu responded bluntly: “Israel will defend itself by itself.”
The implications are broader than Yemen. On Iran, Syria, and regional arms deals, Trump may choose a path that secures American interests but leaves Israel exposed. If a new Iran deal emerges – one that Israel deems unacceptable – it will have to consider acting unilaterally, despite the risks and diplomatic cost.
This is not to suggest that a rupture with Washington is inevitable. On the contrary, Israel must work tirelessly to preserve and deepen its alliance with the United States. But it must also internalize that the nature of that alliance is shifting. It is no longer safeguarded by shared assumptions or values alone. The relationship must be constantly justified – not only in strategic and moral terms, but also in economic ones.
At the same time, Israel must recognize, as it did under presidents Bush, Obama, and Biden, that there may be moments when it will need to act to protect its core interests, even in the face of American objections. Trump is looking out for America’s interests: Israel must be ready to defend its own.
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