LONDON — It was a spectacular thing to wake up to: Heathrow, one of the world’s busiest airports, shut down and plunged into darkness. More than a thousand flights grounded, another hundred already in the air diverted to other cities or turned back to where they came from, in a crisis that snarled travel around the world.
The shutdown was caused by a fire at an electrical substation 3 miles away that supplied much of the airport’s critical services. British police have said there was no initial indication of foul play, and the London Fire Brigade has taken over the investigation from counterintelligence officers, “as the fire is now being treated as non-suspicious.”
But in the absence of information immediately after the fire, Britain’s raucous tabloids were ablaze with speculation about Russian sabotage: “If Russia was behind Heathrow fire, is that an act of war?” The Telegraph wondered in an op-ed headline. British radio presenter Nick Ferrari asked listeners jokingly whether anyone had seen Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On social media, users pointed to patterns of sabotage by Russia, while others argued the fire was part of a broader strategy of hybrid warfare.
It is not difficult to see why people might jump to such conclusions. The number of Russian sabotage attacks, many of them carried out in European NATO countries, nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, after quadrupling between 2022 and 2023, according to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
Transportation and critical infrastructure, the CSIS report said, are some of its primary targets, and its main weapons and tactics have included explosives, blunt or edged instruments, and electronic attacks.
Russia has denied accusations that it is orchestrating a sabotage campaign across Europe.
In an article published by the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), Ukraine’s former Finance Minister Oleksandr Danylyuk said sabotage was receiving a higher priority in Russia, with the European intelligence community reporting that a new unit, the 236th Specialist Training Center, had been created to “seriously scale up sabotage operations.”
According to CSIS, roughly 27 % of the known attacks were against transportation targets, another 27% were against government targets, and 21% were against critical infrastructure, including the electricity grid, pipelines and undersea fiber-optic cables.
On Friday, the Kremlin knew more accusations would be coming.
Shortly after the scale of the Heathrow disruption unfolded, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and a former president, addressed U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on X: “I’m looking forward to Russia being blamed for the Heathrow fire. What are you waiting for, Starmer?”
A British official told NBC News on Friday there was “no indication of Russian involvement.”
But H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate at RUSI, said he wasn’t surprised that people jumped to conclusions about Russian sabotage at Heathrow.
“The disinformation and misinformation environment that we’re in leads a lot of people to assume that when bad stuff happens like this, there’s going to be some sort of Russian fingerprint, because there have been so many Russian fingerprints in the past,” he told NBC News.
The increase in attacks appeared to be tied to an increase in military assistance from European governments to Ukraine, according to the CSIS report, with many targets having links to Western aid to Ukraine, such as companies producing or shipping weapons and other supplies. The report also noted that there were no recorded incidents in countries that did not provide significant aid to Ukraine, like Serbia or Hungary.
Richard Moore, head of MI6, has previously described Russia’s actions as a “staggeringly reckless campaign” intended to “sow fear about the consequences of aiding Ukraine” and challenge Western resolve.
The timing of the Heathrow fire, which followed weeks of increased British support for Ukraine as Starmer sought to step in as U.S. backing receded, added fuel to the speculation.
However, Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at RUSI, said while the timing may appear suspicious, covert action “takes time to plan and prepare.”
“Implementing a plan and executing it at a few days’ notice is not easy,” he said on X. “That doesn’t mean its impossible of course!”
The Associated Press has documented at least 59 incidents in which Russia, its proxies or its ally Belarus were blamed by governments and officials for acts across Europe ranging from cyberattacks and propaganda campaigns to sabotage, espionage and assassinations, much of it aimed at entities supporting Ukraine.
Last year, Western security officials said Russia was behind a plot to plant bombs on cargo planes in Germany and the U.K. as part of a wider sabotage campaign to start fires aboard aircraft bound for North America.
According to NATO, Russia was behind a plot to kill the head of a German arms manufacturer supplying weapons to Ukraine, while European authorities are also investigating damage to undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, with Finnish officials detaining a ship suspected of being part of Russia’s “shadow fleet.”
In the United Kingdom, a Russian dissident was poisoned in 2018 with the military-grade nerve agent Novichok, and earlier this month, three Bulgarians were found guilty of running a Russian spy ring from a British seaside resort.
The ongoing sabotage by Russia has created an environment where Russia’s adversaries feel uncomfortable and anxious and slightly paranoid.
“There’s an old saying in the movies,” Hellyer said. “I might be paranoid, but it doesn’t mean that not everybody’s out to get me.”
Savill warned that even if Russia had nothing to do with Heathrow, the mere perception of vulnerability has strategic consequences.
“If you look vulnerable, you are less resilient,” he posted on X. “And that reduces the cost of action against you, limiting the deterrent effect you can achieve.”
The CSIS report suggested Russia’s covert sabotage activities in Europe aimed to erode public support for Ukraine by creating fear and uncertainty.
For now, however, public support for Ukraine remains high. A 2024 European Union survey indicated strong backing for the E.U.’s response to the Russian invasion, with 89% supporting humanitarian aid, 84% in favor of welcoming refugees and 72% approving sanctions on Russia.
