The military junta that overthrew Myanmar’s democratically elected government in 2021 is preparing the ground for national elections in December and January. The junta’s hope is these deeply flawed elections would consolidate its power and provide it with a fig leaf of legitimacy.
Helping its cause are moves by the Trump administration indicating it may be looking to bring the Myanmar junta in from the cold.
A week ago, U.S. President Donald Trump removed sanctions on some allies of Myanmar’s generals and their military-linked companies, a move condemned by the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar.
Then came reports the Trump administration was exploring opportunities to access Myanmar’s rare earth minerals in an effort to sideline its strategic rival, China.
On July 31, Myanmar’s military regime canceled the nationwide state of emergency it had kept in place since the coup, a necessary precondition for holding elections under the military-authored constitution of 2008.
Hours later, however, it reimposed a state of emergency in dozens of townships where opposition forces are either in control or gaining ground. It then declared martial law in these areas. This underlined the junta’s lack of control over much of the country, which would make holding a free and fair election virtually impossible.
Last year, the military was unable to conduct a full census to be used to compile voter rolls. It was only able to count 32 million people in just over half the country’s townships; it had to estimate another 19 million people in areas outside its control.
The July 31 order also handed power from the commander-in-chief of the military to a head of state, which was presented as a return to civilian governance. However, power didn’t actually change hands – Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the coup and military, remains in control as acting president.
Opposition groups have said they will boycott the election, which the U.N. special rapporteur for Myanmar called a “fraud.”
Myanmar’s generals may try to use Trump’s apparent interest in the country’s rare earths as leverage in their attempt to normalize relations with the United States ahead of a poll.
Rare earths have emerged as a critical source of leverage for Beijing in the China-U.S. trade war. China is not only a large miner of rare earths; it dominates the processing required to use them, accounting for around 90 percent of global refining. In recent years, China has begun reducing its own mining and increasing its extractions from neighboring Myanmar, the third-largest producer in the world.
Since the coup, rare earth mining has exploded in northern Kachin State, much of which is controlled by the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), an ethnic armed group that opposes the junta.
Late last year, the KIO seized two important rare earth mining towns from the military and demanded a greater role in taxing exports to China. Beijing initially closed the border in response. However, trade soon resumed after the two sides reached a deal on export taxes.
Two different proposals have reportedly been put to Trump for ways to access Myanmar’s rare earth deposits. One would entail opening talks with the junta; the other talking directly with the KIO. Part of this effort could entail Trump reducing the punitive 40 percent tariffs his administration imposed on Myanmar to sweeten the deal.
Yet, challenges remain to making this a reality. The mines are located in the contested war-torn mountains of northern Myanmar bordering China, which are controlled by the KIO. There is no real infrastructure capable of transporting exports to India’s remote northeastern states. The only other export route is south through territory controlled by the junta or other ethnic armed groups.
In addition, any attempt by the United States and its allies to extract thousands of tons of rare earth material away from China’s borders would likely anger Beijing. It could pressure the KIO by reducing fuel and food imports coming from China. The group’s independence and ability to fight the junta relies on trade with China. It would not take long for such an agreement to fall apart.
Finally, rare earths mining is extremely polluting and dangerous. Even under Trump, it is unlikely U.S. companies would gamble on the inevitable reputational and legal risks that would accompany such a project, especially in a war zone.
In essence, any attempt by the Trump administration to secure rare earths from Myanmar through any intermediary will not go anywhere. There is therefore no justification, on any grounds, for the Trump administration to reduce sanctions on Myanmar’s generals or their cronies.
Likewise, although the junta is attempting to legitimize its brutal rule by offering a patina of constitutional processes, its elections will not bring real change to the country.
Myanmar’s people have repeatedly demonstrated over the past four decades, in every remotely free and fair election, that they do not want the military involved in the governance on their country.
If the junta does go ahead with this election, the world’s governments should call it out for the farcical charade of democracy it will represent. This includes the administration in Washington.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
