MELBOURNE, Australia — Carlos Alcaraz could not have articulated it better when asked to share his thoughts on the upcoming Australian Open quarterfinal battle against Novak Djokovic.
“This is not the right player to play in a quarterfinal,” joked the world No. 3.
At any tennis tournament on the planet, this heavyweight matchup would be a worthy and highly anticipated final. But at this year’s Australian Open, the two titans will battle it out in a quarterfinal for the ages.
Here’s how each player can win the match and progress to the semifinals:
Why Novak Djokovic will beat Carlos Alcaraz
Is it too simplistic to say Djokovic just knows how to win at Melbourne Park? Perhaps. But he really does!
Djokovic is a 10-time champion at the Australian Open and boasts a ridiculous 94-9 record at the tournament over his career. Take out his first three years on tour, and that number gets even scarier at 91-6. No player has won more matches than Djokovic at the Australian Open, and no player has won more matches at Rod Laver Arena, where Tuesday’s blockbuster clash will be contested. There’s an aura around Djokovic that is most definitely felt by his opponent every time he steps onto this court.
The head-to-head record between the two also favors Djokovic in this quarterfinal. After losing to Alcaraz in two of the pair’s first three meetings, the Serbian star has managed to flip the script. He won three of the next four, including last summer’s famous Olympic Games final on clay at Roland Garros. Crucially, Djokovic has also prevailed both times he and Alcaraz have met on a hard court. Those matches were at the 2023 Cincinnati Masters and the ATP Finals later that year.
After dropping sets in both his first- and second-round matches of the tournament, Djokovic looks to have found his groove once more. He has won eight consecutive sets, displayed fierce ballstriking and that trademark defense en route to the quarterfinals.
“I’m really glad to be able to beat both [Tomas] Machac and [Jiri] Lehecka in straight sets, that encourages me to believe I can win against any opponent really on a good day when I’m feeling my best,” Djokovic said after his fourth-round win. “I like the way I’m playing and the way I’m feeling the last couple of matches. I’m excited about [the Alcaraz] challenge.”
The Alcaraz serve, which was rebuilt this past offseason in an effort to make the motion more fluid and thus find accuracy with greater consistency, also seems to be a little suspect. He has struck 15 double faults through four matches and is landing the first serve only 62% of the time. That has him ranked 69th for first serve percentage at this year’s tournament. If Alcaraz continues to battle with his serve, it’s advantage Djokovic, the greatest returner the game has ever seen.
But perhaps the greatest reason to suggest Djokovic will overcome his younger rival and move into the last four is the history he is playing for. Another Grand Slam title — a 25th — would break the tie he holds with Margaret Court for the most singles major triumphs in a career. And if he is to win another major, he will become the oldest man to ever lift a Grand Slam trophy.
Why Carlos Alcaraz will beat Novak Djokovic
There’s no shortage of factors working in Alcaraz’s favor ahead of this quarterfinal. But the most obvious has to be his age and freshness.
At 21, Alcaraz is an extraordinary 16 years the junior of Djokovic, and those fresh, young legs should hold him in good stead against the king of Melbourne Park. Not only that, but Alcaraz has spent significantly less time on court throughout the first four rounds: seven hours and 45 minutes, compared with Djokovic’s 11 hours.
Djokovic might own that eye-popping record at the Australian Open, but for stretches of this year’s tournament he hasn’t looked quite like the same player he once was. Perhaps you could say his age is invariably showing. At various stages, Djokovic has battled respiratory issues and struggled to get around the court with his usual gusto, though improvement has come in his two most recent matches. It sounds almost wrong to say as fitness and mental fortitude have defined his renowned career, but the longer the match goes, the more Djokovic will be at a disadvantage.
Alcaraz has already proved he has the game to beat Djokovic on the biggest tennis stages. What’s ominous for Djokovic is that Alcaraz is unquestionably getting better.
The Spaniard is striking the ball harder and with more aggression this fortnight in Melbourne than he was 12 months ago. Tournament data shows he has sacrificed around 4% of topspin on his forehand in exchange for more speed, and is now generating, on average, an extra 3 km/h (1.9 mph) on those shots. As a result, he has struck the most winners at the tournament and has the second-highest percentage of winners from points played. If he can get on top of that serve, he will be tough to overcome.
“Facing Novak, for me it’s not going to change anything. I’m going to approach the match the same as I did in the previous matches against him,” Alcaraz said after his fourth-round match against Jack Draper. “I know my weapons. I know that I’m able to play good tennis against him, I’m able to beat him. That’s all I’m thinking when I’m facing him.”
Djokovic isn’t the only one eyeing history with a win Tuesday. Alcaraz is just three victories away from securing the only Grand Slam title that has eluded him throughout his young career. If he were to win the Australian Open, he would become just the ninth man in history to complete the career Slam, but at 21 years, 8 months, 19 days, he would be the youngest to achieve the feat.
Who will win
It’s tough picking against Djokovic at the Australian Open, but there’s a sense we’re moving firmly into the Alcaraz — and Jannik Sinner — era. It will be the match of the tournament, and Alcaraz will prevail in five epic sets.
