What a difference a year makes. Upon taking my seat in the BayArena TV commentary position 12 months ago, I remarked to co-commentator Patrick Owomoyela that it seemed strangely warm for mid-February under the Bayer-Kreuz (Bayer Cross).
We put our words for international viewers to Bayer Leverkusen’s emphatic and richtungsweisend (direction pointing) 3-0 win over Bayern Munich wearing only light jackets, while some fans of die Werkself enjoyed the experience in traditional Karneval costume since the Spitzenspiel (top game) went ahead on the Saturday before Rosenmontag, always a special, celebratory weekend in these parts.
This year, due to the quirks of the calendar, the street elements of Karneval are still two weeks away, and the weather is colder with a brisk breeze from the east swirling around the city Wasserturm (water tower) with dollops of Schneeregen (a snow-rain mix) in the forecast.
Instead of a two-point lead for Leverkusen, it’s a yawning eight-point deficit. Bayern have seized control and if you’re wondering if the German language has a word for an effective clinching of something tangible while falling short of an arithmetic guarantee, it certainly does. Die Vorentscheidung (the preliminary decision) beckons if the Rekordmeister overcomes the defending Meister (champion) here on Saturday.
But Leverkusen know that a victory for them in this Meistergipfel (summit of champions) would reopen the title race. That’s how fine the margins are regarding the psychology of the confrontation.
Mind games always seem to be a factor when Bayern are involved in a big domestic tussle and perhaps predictably, this was the week when the future of Leverkusen star Florian Wirtz took centre stage in the form of a dream by Bayern’s rarely quiet honorary president Uli Hoeness that the 21-year-old sensation might somehow end up in Munich this summer.
Leverkusen’s sporting chief Simon Rolfes was probably on the right lines when he remarked that since he began reading Kicker (the respected specialist football magazine) when he was 10, he has expected such stories to be timed impeccably.
The fact is Wirtz has a contract until 2027 and Bayern are more concerned with shoring up the key members of the current squad, like Jamal Musiala and Joshua Kimmich. This summer is unlikely to see major outgoings on the Säbener Strasse.
Bayern’s 2-1 Wednesday night victory over Celtic in Glasgow was fully deserved, their first UEFA Champions League win not secured on German soil this season. Still, after dominating for 80 minutes, the last few minutes were chastening as they dropped off following multiple substitutions and allowed their hosts to charge at them. A Zitterpartie (a game with a tension-filled end) hadn’t looked likely.
Because of the importance of the fixtures, this week has been labelled for Bayern “die Woche der Wahrheit” (the week of truth). The first priority was to establish a good Ausgangsposition (starting position) ahead of the second leg, which they have done. Now, it’s all about the trip to the Rhineland and it would be accurate to say a draw, thus maintaining an eight-point lead, would be acceptable for Bayern.
That’s not to say they’ll be playing defensively to achieve that outcome. It is yet to be seen what Vincent Kompany’s preferred style will be in any case, but there may still be a tendency to allow Leverkusen to come at them and then try to judiciously pick them off.
Bayern sometimes get into trouble when the line featuring defenders Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-Jae becomes overly high, but given the reality of the table, there is no reason to be beaten that way on Saturday.
Bayern’s strength continues to be high up the pitch. Harry Kane’s 73rd goal in 74 competitive Bayern appearances the other night following a Kimmich corner, made us temporarily stop talking about his truly remarkable penalty kicks. I’ve been watching football for several decades now and can’t remember ever seeing a better, more clinical exponent of the spot kick-taking art.
Consider that Kane has dispatched his past 29 penalties for club and country and is 20 out of 20 for Bayern. Should the Englishman be successful from the spot at the BayArena, he’ll become only the second Bundesliga player (after the legendary Paul Breitner) to make it a perfect 10 penalties in a single campaign.
It’s not just Kane that Leverkusen have to worry about. Michael Olise’s thumping goal at Celtic Park coming in off the left was a reminder of how well he has adapted to new demands in Munich.
Although Musiala’s form has dipped slightly — he has scored just one goal in eight competitive games and has only two Bundesliga assists this season — he remains a match-winner in the making. He will want to outshine Wirtz, who has become a close friend through their playing together for Germany.
I would look for the skillful Aleksandar Pavlović, who scored a stunner in the 1-1 draw with Leverkusen in September to come in for Leon Goretzka. Left-back is the main problem position, though, against lightning-fast raids from Jeremie Frimpong. With Alphonso Davies still on the sidelines, Kompany must decide between Raphaël Guerreiro and a more orthodox defensive choice.
Josip Stanišić, who scored in the fixture last season for Leverkusen while on loan from Bayern, is a candidate now that he’s fit again, but one suspects it’s too soon for him just as it is for Hiroki Ito, who made his Bayern debut on Wednesday night after a long absence with a foot injury.
Leverkusen are dealing with a lot of “what might have been” factors right now. What if they hadn’t blown a 2-0 lead in RB Leipzig recently? What if Wirtz and Frimpong had started the 0-0 draw against Wolfsburg last week instead of large-scale rotation in the form of eight changes following the gruelling Nachbarschaftsduell (neighborhood duel) DFB-Pokal victory over Cologne?
Imagine if it were a four-point difference rather than the eight-point chasm that has opened up.
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Kompany: Kane is still improving despite his age
Bayern Munich manager Vincent Kompany believes Harry Kane is still improving despite his age due to his consistent work rate.
There are several things in Xabi Alonso’s favour this weekend, though. One is his own unbeaten record as coach against the team he played for between 2014 and 2017. In every meeting, whether against Julian Nagelsmann, Thomas Tuchel or now Kompany, the man from the Basque region has deployed a tactical tweak to wrongfoot Bayern.
By favouring a back four with four central defender types across the chain — as opposed to his usual back three — Alonso has created a platform that has nullified Bayern’s more creative performers while taking advantage of Frimpong’s jet-heeled qualities and Alex Grimaldo’s technical aptitude higher up the pitch.
The key, though, has been to do it differently every time against the Rekordmeister. Back in September in Munich, it was stubborn and defensive, if unspectacular and certainly good enough to get the 1-1 draw Leverkusen achieved. In December, also at the Allianz Arena in the DFB-Pokal, the game turned on a key early moment when a long, raking Jonathan Tah pass found a sprinting Frimpong, who was upended illegally by Manuel Neuer outside the box and rightly sent off.
What will be the special tactical Schachzug (chess piece) on Saturday? Frequently in games of this character, Alonso leaves out orthodox strikers completely, preferring pacy runners or a false nine in Wirtz.
For anyone who enjoys football tactics, this will be one for you. Above all, though, Leverkusen-Bayern has — for now anyway — become the definitive compelling German fixture not to be missed.
Can the defending champions recreate elements of their unforgettable Meisterkusen season and reignite the race? Or is this the day when Bayern cement their credentials at the summit?
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