Gonzaga’s placement at No. 1 overall for a second straight season is no surprise. The Zags, led by junior Drew Timme and freshman Chet Holmgren, have the second-most efficient offense in the nation after adjusting for strength of schedule and their defense sits at No. 8, leaving Gonzaga and Arizona as the only two squads ranking in the Top 10 of both Pomeroy metrics. What is surprising is most sportsbooks list Gonzaga at +400 (wager $100 to win $400) to cut down the nets in this year’s national title game. Based on their standing among the ranking systems audited by Ken Massey, most of which are first and second-place finishes, we would expect Gonzaga to win the tournament about 31 percent of the time, which gives this wager a plus-$0.55 expectation for every dollar wagered. Your own outlook on Gonzaga will vary but consider this to be a positive expectation wager as long as you feel they have better than a 20 percent chance to win it all.
Here are other Top 16 teams worth investigating in the futures markets and three others to keep on your radar based on their chances to win and the odds offered. Odds are as of Tuesday morning.
No. 16 (per committee’s ranking) UCLA, +2500
Fair-value money line based on chance to win national title: +2100
The Bruins’ home wins over Villanova and Arizona account for three Quadrant 1 victories (a sliding scale that quantifies strength of schedule based on location of the game) this season and the losses on the road to Arizona (No. 3 per Pomeroy’s rankings) and USC (No. 28), the latter by three points, are understandable considering where those other programs rank this season. The rest of UCLA’s resume looks solid, ranking in the Top 15 for offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom ratings with one of the lowest turnover margins on offense (14 percent, fourth). Those numbers should insulate them against a major upset by an opportunistic opponent.
No. 11. Tennessee Volunteers, +6000
Fair-value money line based on chance to win national title: +2100
Tennessee slots in as a No. 3 seed in the latest reveal behind Arizona and Baylor despite the Volunteers defeating Arizona 77-73, in Knoxville in December. Tennessee has four other Quadrant 1 wins on its resume, including a victory over Kentucky, who was ranked No. 6 in last week’s reveal.
Head Coach Rick Barnes is watching his defense, the fourth-best in the nation, do its job night after night and the team’s high forced turnover rate (24 percent, 11th best) plus offensive rebound rate (33 percent, 42nd) are two hallmark’s of teams that pull off quality upsets, making the Vols a formidable foe in the later rounds.
Fair-value money line based on chance to win national title: +2400
It’s interesting how high the Cougars rank in the NCAA’s NET rating, which replaced the RPI before the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams, yet couldn’t breach the Top 16 teams in the latest reveal. Houston, at No. 4 in the NET ratings, ranked higher than all but Gonzaga, Arizona and Kentucky. Providence, by contrast, ranks 27th and was included.
Houston also ranks seventh in Pomeroy’s ratings and 12th overall per Massey’s tabulation, giving the Cougars a case to be included among college basketball’s best of 2021-22. However, the committee no doubt looked at the squad’s lack of a Quadrant 1 win and decided it still had work to do. Nevertheless, Houston probably has a five percent chance to be the last team standing, which makes their current price at +3500 an intriguing proposition with a positive expectation of $0.44 per $1 wagered.
Fair-value money line based on chance to win national title: +48000
The latest bracket predictions, a compilation of 119 different points of view aggregated at Bracket Matrix, see the Huskies as a No. 6 seed and the third-highest Big East team after Villanova and Providence. Only Villanova is rated higher by Pomeroy’s rankings among teams in the conference and no Big East team has performed better defensively after taking into account strength of schedule.
Connecticut’s biggest strength is its ability around the rim, which manifests itself in two ways. It allows them to generate extra possessions via offensive rebounds — the team is gabbing 38 percent of their misses in 2021-22, the third-highest rate in the nation — and hold opponents to a 46 percent field goal rate around the basket, good enough to put them in the top three percent of college programs this season. The Huskies are also limiting jump shooters to 28 percent shooting within 17 feet of the basket when the rest of the nation allows 37 percent.
Fair-value money line based on chance to win national title: +17000
Keegan Murray, a 6-foot-8, 22-year-old sophomore forward who could become Iowa’s first first-round NBA draft pick since Ricky Davis in 1998, is averaging 42.8 points per 100 possessions while shooting 66 percent around the basket in the Big Ten. He is also tough to guard in transition, where he scores nearly 1.5 points per possession, good enough to put him in the 96th percentile of college players this season.
According to Basketball Reference, Murray has been worth six win shares this season, the fourth-most among qualified players, and is a big reason Iowa is still on track to make the tournament despite the team losing Luka Garza, the National Player of the Year, and Joe Wieskamp, an All-Big Ten player last season.