In late 2012, Bill Ackman started one of the more celebrated battles over corporate control, when he charged that the supplement company Herbalife Nutrition (HLF) was a pyramid scheme.
Ackman, head of hedge fund firm Pershing Square Square Capital Management, had a huge short position in Herbalife’s stock. Short-sellers bet on drops in stock prices; they do best if a stock price drops to zero.
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The fight brought in Carl Icahn, a legendary and feared billionaire, who was — and still is — not one to trifle with. Icahn had had dealings with Ackman before. One bad deal forced him to write Ackman a large check. And Icahn decided to support Herbalife.
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The fight went on for nearly six years, with millions spent on high-priced lawyers, PR people and more lawyers. There was even a bit of live television so dramatic that NYSE trading slowed to a trickle. And when the dust settled, Ackman ended his fight, with a loss of maybe $1 billion for his effort.
Herbalife is still alive but struggling. Its shares reached $58.20 in February 2021. The shares closed at $7.48 on Friday, down 87% from that 2021 peak. Analysts mostly rate the stock a hold. Revenue at around $5 billion is barely growing.
Ackman’s Pershing Square is still going strong, and he is in another tussle involving Carl Icahn, though Icahn himself is not a participant.
It’s a contest, actually, to see who can make the biggest return from theoretical investments between Oct. 28, 2024, and April 30, 2025.
The contest sponsor is the Robin Hood Foundation, which is committed to alleviating poverty in New York City and has a second goal of providing emergency funds in the event of a disaster in the New York City region.
The foundation has an A-list roster of donors and supporters from Wall Street to the media and the arts, and it made $117.6 million in grants in 2023. In November 2024 alone the grants totaled $40 million.
The contest to see who’s a great investment picker
The foundation has raised about $400,000 for its Pick-a-Ticker contest, including $10,000 from each of the contestants.
Thirty-five players are in the competition: all money managers, all male and mostly from money-management firms in New York. Each contestant has to take two fictitious positions:
- One long position. That is, buying to hold something.
- One short position. That is, betting that the value will decline.
The winner is whoever generates the highest total return from his two picks. The foundation gets two-thirds of the pot. The winner can direct which charity gets the last third of the cash. Most entrants are saying their winnings will go to the foundation.
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Ackman’s positions are:
Long: Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) , better known as Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae is one of the biggest sources of mortgage capital to residential real estate. It essentially collapsed in the 2008 financial crisis and has been a ward of the government ever since. There’s talk the second Trump administration will try to privatize Fannie Mae, along with Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. (FMCC) , known as Freddie Mac.
Short: Icahn Enterprises (IEP) , Carl Icahn’s company. The company has $17.4 billion in assets. Technically, Icahn Enterprises is a master limited partnership, which gives Icahn, the general partner, just about all power. The company’s interests include investments, energy, automotive, food packaging and real estate.
Ackman is beating all his competitors with his gain so far: 112.5% as of Dec. 11. His nearest competitor is up only 63%.
Here’s why Ackman is doing so well:
- Fannie Mae is up about 83%.
- Icahn Enterprises has fallen around 30% because a short-seller says the assets are overvalued, and the company is operating with unsustainable dividend payments.
We’ll see whether Ackman can keep his lead. And whether Icahn cares.
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