Mark Twain’s quote, “Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction”, highlights our fascination with the unexpected and extraordinary – real-life events that defy logic and reason, pique our curiosity and leave us wanting more.
While fiction explores the unimaginable, mediums like movies help bridge the gap between reality and imagination, offering insight into the unexpected. One of Bollywood’s greatest films in the last two decades, Three Idiots, tells the story of three friends.
The protagonist Ranchordas is a poor student dismissed by his teachers. Suddenly, things changed. He started getting A+s in all tests and exams. To everyone’s surprise, he cleared the toughest exam and was selected for one of the top prestigious colleges for engineering.
In reality, he was dumb, but on paper, he was a genius. He had the numbers—numbers speak. In the end, his two friends find out the real Ranchordas. Indian politics today is in a similar situation of revelation.
Maharashtra election: A pivotal moment in election history
After the 2024 general election, India witnessed a shift as Modi’s BJP lost its majority and public support. Voters rejected Hindutva politics and prioritized instead issues like unemployment, inflation and inequality. BJP’s defeat in its strongholds, including Ayodhya in Uttar Pradesh, signaled anti-incumbency sentiment and Modi’s waning popularity.
Soon, they will have to face the litmus test in back-to-back assembly elections in October (Haryana & Jammu and Kashmir ) and November (Maharashtra and Jharkhan ).
In Haryana, strong anti-incumbency sentiment forced the BJP to replace its two-time chief minister just six months before the election. Modi and Amit Shah distanced themselves, addressing only four rallies, and their faces were absent from rally posters.
Observers and pollsters reported widespread public anger, with exit polls unanimously predicting an opposition Congress victory. However, the results shocked everyone. Despite early trends favoring Congress, a dramatic turnaround defied expert assessments, leaving many puzzled by the unexpected outcome.
The BJP achieved a hat-trick in Haryana, winning 48 of 90 Assembly seats with a 40% vote share—its best since 2000. Despite losing 5 of 10 parliamentary seats in the 2024 general election just months earlier and lacking strong state leadership or significant progress on the ground, this turnaround was remarkable. BJP secured over 50% votes on 19 seats (compared to Congress’s 12) and 40-50% votes on 39 seats (Congress: 32), surpassing the majority mark of 46 seats.
Despite strong anti-incumbency, Modi’s waning popularity, leadership issues, internal conflicts and a lack of a strong narrative, pulling such a feat is exceptional and close to impossible for any party. In Jammu & Kashmir, strong regional party National Conference won the election in alliance with Congress.
Post-Haryana election attention now shifts to Maharashtra’s Assembly election in November. In the 2024 general election, Congress’s India Alliance won 30 of 48 seats in Maharashtra, while the BJP-led NDA managed just 17, with a strike rate of 32%.
The BJP’s poor performance in the 2024 general election was seen as a backlash against its alliances with breakaway factions of Shiv Sena and NCP. Experts predicted a tough fight in the Maharashtra Assembly election, with exit polls favoring the BJP’s NDA or Mahayuti over the India alliance for a narrow win.
However, the results were shocking: BJP emerged as the single largest party with 132 seats, its best-ever performance, achieving an 85% strike rate. It routed the Congress-led MVA or India, which had gained momentum in the Lok Sabha polls just six months earlier.
For the first time in Maharashtra’s history, no opposition party secured 10% of the seats required to claim leader of opposition status. BJP’s unprecedented turnaround in such a short time of six months is unprecedented or unheard of in Indian politics.
There are uncanny similarities between the Haryana and Maharashtra elections which raises some serious questions. Both saw record-high voter turnouts, with Maharashtra’s the highest in three decades—a trend historically favoring anti-incumbency.
More importantly, if it’s a return of “Modi Waves”, then why are BJP’s victories limited to BJP-ruled states. Why didn’t it extend to other states like Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir?
If BJP was so sure of winning, then why did BJP leader Vinod Tawde resort to paying voters? Why did the media fail to capture this Modi wave phenomenon ? BJP’s leap from a 32% success rate in the general election to nearly 85% in six months is unprecedented and worthy of a case study by other parties.
A new trend has emerged in the Haryana and Maharashtra elections: a sharp rise in voting percentages after 5 pm, when polls are near closing. In Maharashtra, turnout jumped from 55% at 5 pm to 68% the next day—a 13% increase.
This raises concerns, as these figures are based on real-time data recorded on Form 17A by the presiding officer, which tracks voter attendance throughout the day. How can the data vary the next day to such an extent? Certainly there are certain loopholes or vulnerabilities in the system, which are being exploited.
EVMs: The Pandora’s Box of India’s Electoral Integrity
Technological devices generally use two types of authentication: Single Factor Authentication (SFA) and Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA).
SFA, like email ID and password, grants access only to those with the password. MFA adds an extra layer of security, such as requiring an OTP sent to a verified number, to ensure only the authorized user can access the system.
Even with access to a password, a malicious user can’t log in without the OTP sent to the authorized person. This two-factor authentication, also used in banking, ensures security.
For example, ATM withdrawals provide both a screen message and a printed slip or SMS as proof. Without this, there would be no proof to report unauthorized transactions, creating a significant vulnerability.
The Indian EVM system currently uses single-factor authentication, making it vulnerable to manipulation. EVMs consist of two units: the control unit, operated by the polling officer, and the balloting unit, used by the voter.
While the VVPAT feature allows voters to verify their vote, only five VVPAT machines per segment are cross-checked with EVM results. Instead, these should be selected based on objections from the top two candidates.
The Election Commission (EC) must address discrepancies transparently to maintain trust, especially since it controls voter data, EVMs and VVPAT slips. On top of that, Chief Election Commissioner was appointed by the Modi government and worked under Modi’s second term as finance secretary . It’s a direct conflict, if not clash, of interest. It’s like a convict choosing his favorite judge.
Given concerns about conflicts of interest, the EC should adopt multi-factor authentication or revert to paper ballots to ensure credibility rather than ignoring it. Otherwise, India’s election will be much like Russia or North Korea, where everyone knows the result before the elections.
