Can Arsenal afford not to sign a forward in January window?

Arsenal have been here before. The present and fierce debate over whether they should sign a striker in January is similar to the mood around the club three years ago, when Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was abruptly transferred to Barcelona and the Gunners pondered signing a replacement.

Steadfast in their belief that the ideal player wasn’t available, Arsenal decided that they would not compromise or gamble by pursuing an alternative, instead trusting those already at the club to see it through. They ended up paying a high price, missing out on UEFA Champions League football by just two points as late-season defeats at Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur cost them dearly.

The final table showed Arsenal in fifth place with 61 goals. Champions Manchester City ended with 99, Liverpool with 94.

The Gunners have adopted a disciplined approach in the transfer market during manager Mikel Arteta’s five-year reign, preferring to wait for their top target or pivot to a backup option who could be had for less in certain circumstances. It has served them well, transforming them from top-four hopefuls to title contenders in the past two seasons.

A reminder of this longer-term view came this week with news that they are in pole position to sign Martín Zubimendi from Real Sociedad. That deal, regarded as a significant coup if they pull it off, will strengthen their central midfield and ease pressure on the club to tie down either one or both of Jorginho and Thomas Partey, who each have contracts expiring at the end of the season.

There are more immediate priorities, though. As former Manchester United defender Patrice Evra said last week: “Arsenal is like watching Netflix: you always have to wait for the next season.”

Perhaps now is the time to seize the moment. Nobody watches Arsenal right now thinking they are a central midfielder short. City’s dramatic fall from grace this season has created an unexpected opening that Arsenal, second for the past two years, should have been best placed to take; instead, Liverpool have opened up a four-point gap at the top of the table with a game in hand.

In the face of criticism regarding their faltering attack, Arteta repeatedly points to Arsenal’s 91-goal haul last season, a club record for a Premier League campaign. But too many games follow a similar pattern: creating limited chances from open play, which are often squandered, relying on set pieces to mask that inefficiency, or a moment of brilliance from Martin Ødegaard or Bukayo Saka.

Arsenal edged past Tottenham on Wednesday night, deservedly so, but without breaking that cycle. On Saturday, they raced to a 2-0 lead at home to Aston Villa, with two open-play goals, only to concede twice late and settle for a point. It was a result that could prove every bit as harmful to their Premier League title chances as when they met in similar circumstances back in April, when Villa’s smash-and-grab 2-0 victory cost Arteta’s side dearly.

That Villa loss came in the middle of a two-legged Champions League quarterfinal defeat to Bayern Munich, after which sources told ESPN that the club were seeking to bolster their forward line in summer 2024. They ultimately opted against doing so, signing instead left-back Riccardo Calafiori and midfielder Mikel Merino before on deadline day, as Chelsea suddenly dropped their demands, a late loan move for Raheem Sterling materialised because, they felt, the numbers worked and Arteta knew the player from working together at City.

A revitalised Sterling might have made a big difference, but the version in need of rehabilitation does not. Can they afford to wait once again this month, or does the tangible opportunity of a first league title in 21 years require greater urgency and ambition?

The root cause of Arsenal’s decision not to pursue a striker last summer was Benjamin Sesko’s change of heart, as he opted to sign a new contract with RB Leipzig rather than seek a move. Arsenal assessed their options, but ultimately chose against recalibrating their sights.

Newcastle were reluctant to allow Alexander Isak to depart, while the Gunners did not even enter the conversation as Ivan Toney left Brentford for Al Ahli and Victor Osimhen traded Napoli for Galatasaray.

Other forwards were also considered, but Arsenal decided not to compromise. That decision has looked increasingly questionable as the team has struggled to find a consistent rhythm in the final third.

Their impressive potency from set pieces has gone from a welcome side hustle to arguably their principal threat, particularly when Ødegaard was absent for several weeks with an ankle problem and more recently, as Saka is now out until March following hamstring surgery.

Arsenal’s build-up play has long focused on the Ødegaard and Saka combination down the right, supported by Ben White from full-back. Prior to that second leg against Bayern in April, then-Bayern boss Thomas Tuchel made no secret of it: “With Saka and Ødegaard, they always attack on the right. They try to create an overlap there.”

Saka is unavailable now, as was Ødegaard earlier in the campaign, while White has been missing since November due to knee surgery.

Ødegaard returned in fine form initially, Saka’s numbers remained impressive until his injury and Jurriën Timber did his best to replace White, but this avenue of attack has not been as effective this term. That problem has been compounded by Gabriel Martinelli’s loss of form on the left — leading to his omission from the starting lineup for Wednesday’s north London derby — and Kai Havertz has regressed in front of goal amid social media abuse aimed at him and his family.

This isn’t to say Arsenal are collapsing — far from it. They have lost only two league games this season, and the gap to Liverpool is just about manageable as things stand. Yet the nagging feeling that they need something extra in attack is inescapable. A point that is often underplayed is that the Gunners are not necessarily focused on an out-and-out striker.

Arteta tends to like players capable of operating in a number of positions, and it says something about the squad depth that Saka’s injury suddenly left 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri trying to fill his shoes on the right wing. Gabriel Jesus could have played there — sources suggest he would actually quite like to more often — but there are now fears he will be out for the rest of the season after undergoing anterior cruciate ligament surgery on his left knee.

Martinelli has looked inconclusive on the right flank, while Sterling made only his third league start of the season against Spurs and was better without the ball than with it. The possibility of signing someone more suited to playing out wide might well appeal, especially given Arteta’s passionate defence of Havertz as a central striker.

Sources have told ESPN that after losing to Bayern, senior figures at the club expressed a belief that they needed a little more spark in the final third. Such a thing could come from a striker or a wide player. So, whom could they go after?

Sources have told ESPN that there is a belief among those with knowledge of Sesko’s situation at Leipzig that he could become available this summer. One source has suggested he could be available for a transfer fee of around €70 million or €75 million. It is unclear whether Leipzig would even consider sanctioning a January move, but Arsenal are yet to test their resolve.

Isak is arguably the in-form striker in Europe right now. A brace in Newcastle’s 3-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers made it eight consecutive Premier League games in which the Sweden international has scored. Only three players have ever managed a longer streak: Ruud van Nistelrooy twice, Jamie Vardy twice and Daniel Sturridge.

The size of the transfer fee required to get Newcastle to part with Isak is unclear, but one source suggests it could cost as much as £150m. Whether that could be negotiated down remains to be seen, but he has a contract on Tyneside until 2028 and Newcastle are in the hunt for Champions League qualification. They are currently only six points behind Arsenal in the table and hold a clear advantage in their Carabao Cup semifinal tie with the Gunners, leading 2-0 from the first leg. Allowing him to leave now appears highly unlikely.

Arteta was coy when asked about Viktor Gyökeres prior to Arsenal’s Champions League meeting with Sporting CP in late November. There is a clear feeling that if Gyökeres were to go anywhere, it would be to reunite with Ruben Amorim at Manchester United, but there are palpable concerns regarding profit and sustainability rules (PSR) at Old Trafford that would suggest they lack the budget to complete such a deal this month.

Were Arsenal to consider a wide player, Athletic Club’s Nico Williams has been on their radar for some time, and sources have told ESPN that the 22-year-old’s contract has a release clause of approximately €60 million. Barcelona are widely reported to be monitoring Williams’ situation, but a January deal might not be straightforward for anyone: sources have told ESPN that Williams did not leave in the summer, at least in part, because he wants to play a potential UEFA Europa League final at Athletic’s San Mamés Stadium.

The Gunners — along with Tottenham — were also tracking Matheus Cunha, but reports suggest he is close to signing a new deal to stay at Wolves.

Elsewhere, Brentford boss Thomas Frank has ruled out the possibility of Bryan Mbeumo leaving the club this month. Teammate Yoane Wissa is admired by several Premier League clubs.

Arsenal have previously been linked with Lille’s Jonathan David — whose contract expires at the end of the season — and Dusan Vlahovic, who is set to face renewed competition for places at Juventus with the imminent arrival of Randal Kolo Muani on loan from Paris Saint-Germain. Sources have told ESPN that Arsenal looked at Vlahovic three years ago in that January window when Aubameyang left, but ultimately believed his representatives were only serious about a move to Juventus from Fiorentina at the time. Whether something has changed in the intervening time remains to be seen.

January is always a difficult window for all clubs and no option is easy, but there is certainly a feeling among many supporters that something has to change at Arsenal if they are to do everything within their power to maximise their title chances.