The year 2025 has arrived, and Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has some thoughts to be shared. Ishiba uploaded a brief statement titled a “New Year’s Reflection” on the Prime Minister’s Office website, which included a New Year’s greetings to the public, and a pledge to “bring about happiness for all citizens” by focusing on “three key policy areas” that he wishes to prioritize.
Out of all the issues that Japan faces, Ishiba raised foreign policy as first among his New Year’s resolutions – a priority reflective of Ishiba’s lifelong interest in the field. He has authored books on matters related to national security, and is a self-proclaimed defense expert himself. Establishing an Asian version of NATO – with the group’s primary focus being to counter China – by aligning regional partners into a military pact was one of his platform points during his bid for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidency.
While alluding to the war in Ukraine, the threat of North Korea (both top concerns among the Japanese public), and “other challenges,” Ishiba implied that his government will pursue a two-track strategy of blending diplomacy and security together. On top of that he did not forget to insert one of his campaign promises: “to improve the living and working environments as well as the treatment of Self-Defense Forces [SDF] personnel,” who he believes are the “central core” of the nation’s defense – and diplomacy too. Regarding the current state of the SDF, Ishiba finds the personnel are being underpaid and the retirees are not promised a secure enough life. He aims to remedy those conditions by passing laws and securing funds in the budget in the next main Diet session.
The second point Ishiba raised as a goal for this year is to “restore vitality to Japan as a whole.” Ishiba proposed to do this using two distinct methods. One is to change Japan starting from the rural areas. Representing the smallest prefecture in Japan, with a growing elderly – and an overall shrinking – population, Ishiba is acutely aware of the plight of rural Japan. He also sees it something akin to a foreign policy issue (his expertise) – a “silent contingency.” His plans to revitalize Japan’s rural, depopulated areas are simple: to increase more direct spending given to municipalities with low tax revenue, with more room for discretion.
Another part of Ishiba’s plan to revitalize the Japanese economy can be seen as a nod to former Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, who played a pivotal role in pushing Ishiba across the finish line during the LDP presidential election. As prime minister, Kishida had encouraged companies to increase wages, and he recently launched a Diet member caucus to transform Japan into a “country with a high level of asset management,” aiming to cement his legacy of expanding individual investment. Ishiba has been promising that he will inherit Kishida’s economic policy and doubled down on this approach in his reflection, saying, “We will transition to a growth-driven economy led by wage increases and investment.” Kishida’s influence over the Ishiba administration is likely to persist.
The third and final policy issue that Ishiba raised was public safety in relation to both natural and human-made disasters. On the front of preparing for natural disasters, he laid out his plan to establish a Disaster Management Agency for a country that is “one of the most disaster-prone.” Separately, the frequent occurrences of purported “shady part-time jobs,” involving high paid recruitment for illegal activities via social media, has forced Ishiba to mention the trend in his letter. He is creating a task force on the issue, which is headed by Takaichi Sanae, a conservative darling who lost the LDP presidential contest by a whisker.
Ishiba has made it abundantly clear what he wants to accomplish this year, and what he hopes to include in fiscal year 2026’s budget – making the New Year’s statement a virtual wishlist. However, considering Ishiba’s precarious status as a minority government the issues that he did not emphasize – or did not mention at all – is likely to consume his political capital during the first half of 2025. He will be forced to compromise with opposition parties to pass legislation, including the budget, all while making calculations stemming from his own personal political survival as well as his party’s fate at the ballot box this coming July.
Ishiba stressed the importance of “listening carefully to the views of other parties,” but this may be difficult in practice, considering that the opposition parties have their own priorities. The LDP sees the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Nippon Ishin no Kai (Nippon Ishin) as possible legislative partners going forward; either party’s cooperation will help the LDP-Komeito coalition form a working majority.
Although the LDP has shown willingness to listen to their needs, disagreements are already surfacing, imperiling further talks. The LDP has been sparring with the DPFP over the so called “1.03 million yen barrier” – the line between the taxed and non-taxed income. While the DPFF wants to raise the ceiling to 1.78 million yen ($11,300), the LDP has opposed such a hike on the grounds that it will significantly reduce tax revenue – especially hurting regional governments. The LDP proposed a modest increase to 1.23 million yen.
The LDP sees Nippon Ishin as an ally for bypassing and pressuring the DPFF. However, their conflicting views over donations from companies and organizations – Nippon Ishin wants to ban them, while the LDP sees such controls as an violation of “free speech” – will separate the two if differences remain unresolved.
Even the Constitutional Democratic Party may be considered as a possible partner over tax and social security reform, if the LDP gives up on the DPFP and Nippon Ishin, although that prospect seems unlikely at the moment. The fact that the LDP approved the CDP’s demands to increase disaster relief for the Noto Peninsula in the budget – even though the CDP voted against the budget that included the funding – is a sign that the LDP is at least open to establishing a working relationship with the largest opposition party.
The ruling party’s lack of a majority makes it inevitable that the opposition’s priorities will trump Ishiba’s. Nevertheless, if Ishiba concedes too much, then his party will fume over it. Asahi Shimbun reported a comment attributed to a former high-ranking party official, who criticized Ishiba for “giving too much away to the opposition.” The same article noted the ire of a couple more members of the LDP. Party conservatives are wary that Ishiba will green light the passage of a law allowing spouses to use separate surnames, which they believe will lead to “destroying Japan’s families.”
The events outside of Japan may likewise force Ishiba to divert his attention from his “three key policy areas,” such as the demands for burden sharing coming out of the incoming Trump administration in the United States; the spillover effects of the the political turmoil in South Korea; or the expansion of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Having spent a lengthy period in the political wilderness, Ishiba has a pool of unrealized ideas. He would like to brush aside criticism that he concealed his “true colors” for sake of political expediency, and ideally would prefer taking a principled stance on issues, which is what made him popular among voters in the first place. However, considering that responding to the demands of the opposition and extinguishing internal backlash from his fellow LDP members would consume his time, it doubtful how much he can accomplish by the time he faces the voters in July, when the upper house election is expected to be held. In that case adopting the opposition’s New year’s resolution and putting them into action may be a wiser decision electorally.
