Some Donald Trump fans stopped to snap photos of an unexpected sight during their inauguration jaunt through downtown Washington, D.C.
“Canada congratulates Donald Trump,” one exclaimed on Sunday, as he read the sign atop the Canadian Embassy flanked by enormous maple leaf flags off Pennsylvania Avenue.
“Think Justin Trudeau’s up there?”
No, the prime minister was not there. But more than 1,500 people may, indeed, be there attending Canada’s quadrennial inauguration day party on Monday.
This year’s event is a weird one.
The absence of a parade on Pennsylvania Avenue because of inclement weather isn’t the only reason this will be an atypical party.
It’s the first time since Canada’s Embassy opened at its choice location by Capitol Hill in 1989 that there are no formal festivities to witness live from its traditional party.
The other oddity: Partygoers will spend the whole day anxiously awaiting a slew of potentially damaging executive orders threatened by the star of the day, Trump.
It’s like throwing a party and wondering if you’re on the menu.
There are myriad rumours about what economic penalties Trump might impose: A tiny tariff? A big tariff with loopholes? A temporary tariff? A process to eventually impose tariffs? Or will he fulfil his most severe threat: a full 25 per cent tariff on Canada and Mexico.
Canada’s ambassador to the United States said she expects some sort of trade penalty from Trump — and the exact shape isn’t clear.
“I hesitate to say, it’s ‘almost certain,’ but most people I talk to think there’s some version of a tariff action that will be put forward,” Kirsten Hillman told CBC News in a recent interview.
“Whether it’s on us, whether it’s on others … I don’t know. I hope that they’re all wrong. But I think we have to be ready for that.”
Donald Trump will be the first U.S. president to take the oath of office inside the Capitol instead of outside since Ronald Reagan in 1985. The extreme cold has forced the event inside for the first time in 40 years.
Tariffs an afterthought in speech
Trump’s team briefed Republican allies on Capitol Hill on Sunday on scores of executive orders coming the next day, and it’s unclear where trade fits in.
A handful of U.S. press reports on Monday’s plans did not mention tariffs. Trump referred to tariffs only in passing during a speech on Sunday.
At a rally on the eve of the inauguration, he went on at length about other Day 1 plans. He talked about aggressive deportations and historic border actions, and spent more time on gender ideology than trade.
He squeezed in a reference right at the end, just before the Village People closed out his rally with a festive rendition of YMCA.
“In conclusion,” Trump said, adding promises to cut taxes, end inflation, raise wages and restore thousands of factories to the U.S. through tariffs and other policies.
That was it. And now the continent waits.
Trump’s return is a truly historic moment for Canada-U.S. relations, said Asa McKercher, a scholar at St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia who studies the cross-border relationship.
The incoming president is threatening the most hostile trade actions this continent has seen in over 90 years, since the Great Depression, with the notorious Smoot-Hawley Tariff, he said.
Those 1930 tariffs clobbered Canadian exports: They hit different products at different rates but averaged about 20 percentage points and wiped out most Canadian wool, cattle and flaxseed exports to the U.S.
Trump is also the first major U.S. politician in almost 115 years to make even semi-serious wisecracks about the U.S. annexing Canada, said McKercher, who is the Steven K. Hudson Research Chair in Canada-U.S. Relations at the Brian Mulroney Institute of Government at StFX.
“Donald Trump is in some ways a reversion to a century ago,” he said. “It’s back to the future, I guess.”
In another way, Trump is an even more abrupt break with history, McKercher said, in his gleeful willingness to poke at friendly nations. “It’s kind of unprecedented to have a president so willfully giving the middle finger to allies,” he said.
Business leader urges caution
One Canadian business leader said he’s trying his best to focus on what’s within Canada’s control — not what’s beyond it.
“I’ve spent no time worrying about what, where, when, why [Trump’s tariffs will hit],” said Goldy Hyder, president and CEO of the Business Council of Canada.
“That’s just been a better way to go to sleep every night.”
What Canada can indeed control, he said, is strengthening its own economic policies to create leverage with Trump, such as by better developing its mining and energy resources.
Hyder is also cautioning Ottawa to be extra careful about launching retaliatory actions that might deepen the domestic damage; like, for example, Canadian threats to put an export tax on energy products, which Canada also re-imports from the U.S.
“The last thing you want is for our actions to boomerang on Canada,” he said in an interview on Sunday, as he visited Washington for the inauguration.
We could find out on Monday if there’s anything to retaliate against.
In the meantime, guests will gather for a party at the Canadian Embassy as they have for each inauguration since 1989.
Invitees include provincial leaders, federal cabinet members and a number of U.S. politicians and business groups, all welcomed to enjoy snacks, including beaver tails.
The embassy hasn’t revealed the cost of the affair but said it’s being offset by a number of corporate sponsors.
Proceeding with the event is in the national interest and the right thing to do, regardless of the unusual threats looming over the continent, McKercher said.
“It’s kind of weird,” he said of the circumstances surrounding the party. “But diplomats kind of live in a weird world.”
