Canada’s summer forecast 2025: Hot and dry conditions a concern for wildfires

Canadians appreciate the spring, fall and winter seasons, but we really cherish those warm summer months with all that extended daylight.

This summer especially, many of us will be exploring our own country like never before and the weather will play an important role in where we visit and when.

We are transitioning away from a La Nina in the Pacific into a neutral ENSO (recurring climate pattern in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean) for the upcoming summer.

This means seasonal forecasts take on a higher uncertainty but that’s not stopping most of our computer models from predicting a HOT summer across a huge swath of North America.

For some Canadians, this may be excellent news, but for those already battling another very active start to the wildfire season, the situation is more dire.

Let’s look at what to expect across our country for the months of June, July, and August.

A hot and dry summer will develop across southern B.C. and most of Alberta.

June will be the transition month with periods of cooler (and wetter) than normal weather turning hotter/drier later in the month as the storm track shifts north.

Heat waves and even heat domes will be increasingly likely in July and August which will exacerbate the drought conditions already in place.

This will also increase the risk of a very active fire season. Northern B.C. will see closer to normal precipitation and temperatures.

Spring started off cool and wet but quickly heated up in May, leading to this extremely active start to the fire season.

Ongoing fires and smoke will continue to be a concern throughout the summer with temperatures forecasted to remain above seasonal along with below-normal rainfall.

Heat domes that feedback on the dry conditions could be a major factor in the weather pattern across the northwestern U.S. but their influence reaches into the Prairies.

There is some hope for rain and cooler weather for a couple of weeks in June which may help firefighters get the upper hand with the ongoing wildfires.

May was cool and unsettled across central Canada but June will be the transition month with near seasonal temperatures along with frequent showers and thunderstorms.

Those residents without AC may experience restless nights as humidity levels increase above normal in July and August.

Although daytime highs will likely remain near seasonal, the warm and muggy nights will skew the averages upward and lead to a warmer than normal summer.

Heavy downpours in any daytime thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding.

When these storms move over the big cities like Toronto and Montreal, urban flash flooding would occur. Both locations had major flash floods last year.

NOAA is also forecasting an active hurricane season which could add to the rainfall totals later in the season.

A mild summer is likely across Atlantic Canada with frequent showers and thunderstorms.

The Maritime provinces were spared from a hurricane hit last year even though the season was active.

Another busy year is predicted by NOAA with up to 19 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes expected in the Atlantic.

Only time will tell if any of these make their way north, but Maritimers should be on the lookout from late August through September.

Computer models are showing a higher likelihood of low pressure across Canada’s far north this summer.

Areas north of the 60th parallel will either see near-seasonal or even below-seasonal temperatures after a warmer-than-normal start to June.

This could limit Arctic ice loss. Precipitation will also be above normal for these areas.

Southern NWT and Nunavut are further removed from the storm track and could turn hot again this year.

This is concerning considering the recent fires and another active season is likely but not to the level of 2023.

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