Champions League round of 16 picks: PSG a nightmare draw for Liverpool

The path to the 2025 Champions League final is now mapped out following Friday’s draw for the round of 16, and there will be some titanic clashes on the way to the showpiece game in Munich on May 31.

Defending champions Real Madrid, Premier League leaders Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal must battle it out in the Silver Path to claim a place in the final. Bayern Munich and Barcelona, meanwhile, have been handed a route through the seemingly more straightforward Blue Path in the draw bracket.

But first the favorites to win the competition must navigate a way through the round of 16, and none of the heavyweights have an easy route to the quarterfinals.

The next stage is less than two weeks away, so what are the ties and who will make it to the quarterfinals?

SILVER PATH

This is a meeting between two of the surprise teams of the competition. Nicky Hayen’s Brugge pulled off an unexpected 5-2 aggregate win against last season’s Europa League winners Atalanta in the playoff round. Brugge are a team without stars, but their collective effort has taken them to the round of 16 and they have already beaten Villa this season — a 1-0 league stage win in Belgium in November — which will give them confidence of beating Unai Emery’s team.

But Villa could not have handpicked a better tie in their attempt to reach the latter stages and maybe even repeat their success of 1982, when they won the club’s only European Cup. Emery will have learned from the defeat in Brugge and his Villa team will be strong favorites, to book a quarterfinal clash against Liverpool or PSG especially with the second leg at home.

Winners: Aston Villa

Liverpool cruised through the league stage and finished top of all 32 teams with a record of seven wins and one defeat from eight games, whereas PSG needed victory at VfB Stuttgart in their final game to make it into the playoff round.

But don’t be fooled by PSG’s early struggles. Luis Enrique’s young team appear to have clicked in recent weeks, and they booked a round-of-16 place with a crushing 10-0 aggregate win against Brest in the playoffs. Ousmane Dembélé has become a talismanic figure for PSG, and they added former Napoli winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to their squad in January. Liverpool will be favorites, but this tie will be extremely close and PSG have the pace and confidence to beat Arne Slot’s side to seal a quarterfinal clash against Brugge or Aston Villa.

Winners: PSG

PSV’s playoff-round elimination of Juventus highlights the dangerous quality of Peter Bosz’s team. Former Tottenham Hotspur winger Ivan Perisic and the experienced center-forward Luuk de Jong are capable of making life tough for Arsenal, but it will be a tall order for the Dutch champions to beat them over two legs.

Mikel Arteta’s team are struggling with injuries right now, with forwards Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus out for the season, and that will impact their ability to win the Champions League for the first time. But the Gunners have too much overall quality against PSV, and they should make it through the quarterfinals and clash with Real or Atlético Madrid.

Winners: Arsenal

Here we go again. The two Madrid giants will lock horns in the Champions League for the fourth time in 11 years. It has been a tale of Real glory and Atlético agony during that period, with Real winning the final in 2014 and 2016 and also beating their neighbours in the 2015 quarterfinals and 2017 semis. Atlético have never eliminated Real from the competition — even losing a semifinal playoff in 1958-59 — but Diego Simeone’s team has played out two 1-1 derby draws in La Liga this season, so expect another tense and tight tie.

Real are flying right now, with a Kylian Mbappé hat trick helping seal a 6-3 aggregate win in their playoff against Manchester City. But Atlético are at home in the second leg of this tie and their luck against Real has to change at some point — doesn’t it? Maybe not.

Winners: Real Madrid

BLUE PATH

A potentially epic tie between six-time European champions Bayern and Xabi Alonso’s reigning Bundesliga champions Leverkusen. Both teams have lost just once in the Bundesliga this season, but Bayern have an eight-point lead at the top of the table over Leverkusen. And, with the Allianz Arena hosting this year’s final, they will be desperate to overcome their German rivals.

Bayern needed a stoppage-time equalizer against Celtic in the playoff round while Leverkusen’s top-eight finish in the league stage ensured that they avoided those two extra games and have the bonus of playing the second leg of this tie at home. Alonso has not lost any of his six meetings with Bayern since taking over at the BayArena and, with all of the pressure on Bayern and with question marks over Harry Kane’s fitness due to a calf problem, Leverkusen might just have the edge.

Winners: Bayer Leverkusen

Expect goals in this tie. These two played out an incredible league-stage game in Lisbon in January which ended 5-4 to Barcelona, who had trailed 4-2 with 12 minutes to play. Benfica’s 3-0 home win against Barça in the 2021-22 group stage led to the Spanish giants crashing out at the group stage for the first time in two decades, but they will be underdogs to emulate that success this season.

Benfica have goals in their side, though, with Vangelis Pavlidis netting seven Champions League goals so far this season and Kerem Aktürkoglu weighing in with four. But Barcelona are beginning to click under Hansi Flick and their front three of Robert Lewandowski, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha form arguably the best atacking trio in Europe. They should be too powerful for Benfica.

Winners: Barcelona

Dortmund are struggling for form in the Bundesliga, where they are 11th and working under their third coach since losing to Real Madrid in last season’s Champions League final. But new boss Niko Kovac guided Dortmund to a 3-0 aggregate playoff win against Sporting CP and forward Serhou Guirassy is the leading scorer in the Champions League this season with 10 goals, so the German giants will believe they can overcome Lille to book a quarterfinal against Inter or Feyenoord.

Lille will rely on the goals of Jonathan David and the creativity of Osame Sahraoui to beat Dortmund and this tie really is too close to call. But with Kovac bringing experience to Dortmund, they just have the edge to make it through.

Winners: Borussia Dortmund

Sources have told ESPN that Robin van Persie will be appointed as Feyenoord coach in time to take charge of his first Champions League tie, but the former Arsenal and Manchester United forward has a huge challenge ahead of him against Inter. Simone Inzaghi’s team emerged from the league stage with the best defensive record, conceding just once in eight games and keeping seven clean sheets.

The Serie A champions only lost 1-0 to Manchester City in the 2023 Champions League final in Istanbul, and are a dangerous outsider to win the competition for the first time since 2010. Inter are tough, experienced and hard to beat, with Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram offering a real threat up front. Feyenoord beat AC Milan in the playoffs, but Inter will be too strong for Van Persie’s side.

Winners: Inter

FULL ROUND OF 16 DRAW AND ROUTE TO FINAL