That trend has held true in the U.S. as well. In 2020, the country installed just over 10 GW of utility-scale solar. By 2023, that figure had doubled to 21 GW. Now, in 2024, installations are expected to grow by over 50 percent compared with last year’s already rapid pace.
But things could change for U.S. solar in 2025. ACP predicts that utility-scale solar installations will drop 16 percent next year — and won’t recover until 2027.
That’s because this year’s “uniquely high” installations were driven by the expiration of a two-year moratorium on tariffs targeting solar panels made in Southeast Asia, ACP wrote. That pause, which ended in June, allowed companies to stockpile cheap panels, but developers were required to use up that inventory by December 3 to avoid paying duties.
President-elect Donald Trump is expected to continue, if not intensify, these tariffs when he takes office in January. The incoming Republican trifecta may also eliminate or water down clean energy tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act, including those for manufacturing projects, a move that would make solar more expensive and slow down installations as a result.
Even without any tax credits, ACP expects the cost of utility-scale solar to fall 14 percent by 2035. “Despite short-term headwinds, the picture remains optimistic,” the report says, noting that annual installations will rise to 37 GW by the end of the decade.
But when it comes to solar forecasts, it’s worth considering the track record of industry analysts: Time and time again, they’ve underestimated the technology’s pace of progress.
