China is likely to see its emissions fall this year, despite rising power demand, as it continues to build out renewable power at unparalleled speed, a new analysis finds.
China is building twice as much wind and solar as every other country put together, helping to edge fossil fuels off its power grid. This year alone, China is adding enough solar energy to power all of Australia, according to a new analysis from Carbon Brief. At the same time, the rapid proliferation of electric cars is helping to blunt the use of oil, and a downturn in construction has slowed the production of steel and cement.
A hot September drove the use of air conditioning and stunted hydropower, leading to an uptick in coal and gas burning. And recent stimulus measures aimed at bolstering China’s flagging economy could fuel energy use in the months ahead.
Still, emissions would only need to decline by around 2 percent in the final months of 2024 to see yearly emissions dip below 2023 levels — a likely outcome, the analysis says, as the use of air conditioning drops off heading into winter.
Recent trends in the energy sector raise the possibility that Chinese emissions peaked last year. However, notes the analysis, “policymakers are still setting an expectation that emissions will increase until the end of the decade and plateau or fall very gradually thereafter.”
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