BEIJING – The public spat between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his US counterpart Donald Trump at the White House on Feb 28 is yet another example of how an unpredictable and unreliable America could create greater diplomatic opportunities for China, said observers.
A meeting intended to pave the way for a deal granting the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits – which would reduce US dependence on China for said minerals – ended in an ugly row that played out in front of the world’s TV cameras.
What ensued was a fiery 10-minute exchange, marked by frequent interjections, where Mr Trump and his deputy J.D. Vance accused Mr Zelensky of being “ungrateful” and “disrespectful”. Clips of the incident have since gone viral on Chinese social media, sparking commentary by Chinese observers and netizens on the lack of diplomatic decorum.
No deal was signed and the Ukrainian leader left the White House. European leaders have since rallied behind Mr Zelensky, who received a warm welcome – and a £2.26 billion (S$3.8 billion) loan – from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer a day after the heated exchange.
Mr Trump’s “America First” approach to foreign policy, displayed so publicly, has highlighted the deepening division in the West and within America itself, observers said.
Professor Cui Hongjian of the Academy of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University said Mr Trump’s second-term policies – from abandoning international agreements to intensifying his transactional approach to diplomacy – are creating uncertainty.
“Given Trump’s foreign policy approach – while not fully isolationist but certainly highly inward-looking – China can have a bigger say in global and regional governance influence,” said Prof Cui.
Noting that China has recently maintained steady interactions with Europe and Ukraine, he added: “If Ukraine and Europe are dissatisfied with how the US is handling the current situation, this will objectively create more space for communication, dialogue and cooperation between China and Europe.”
The European Union’s trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic is set to visit China at the end of March.
Likewise, in the Asia-Pacific region, while Mr Trump’s policies have not yet directly targeted Japan and South Korea, these countries are likely preparing for possible shifts, Prof Cui said.
In areas where China and its neighbours may previously have conflicts of interest, there is now an “increasing accumulation of conditions” to promote dialogue and ease tensions, he added.
“Moving forward, China will likely emphasise its role as a stabilising force, forming a sharp contrast with the uncertainty brought by Trump,” he said.
China has been promoting multilateralism in its diplomatic narratives, most recently highlighted by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the UN Security Council high-level meeting on Feb 18.
“By advocating for multilateralism, China can position itself in clear contrast to the US’ unilateralist approach, thereby strengthening its discourse power and soft power internationally,” said Prof Cui.
Since taking office on Jan 20, Mr Trump has withdrawn the US from the World Health Organisation, and – for the second time – the UN Human Rights Council and the Paris climate agreement, among others.
He has also imposed a 10 per cent tariff on all Chinese imports, with an additional 10 per cent set to kick in on March 4. This coincides with the start of China’s annual parliamentary meetings, where Beijing is expected to unveil its main economic priorities for 2025.
On Beijing’s end, China will have to reconsider its approach to US relations and prepare for adjustments based on Mr Trump’s governing style, should he seek a complete reset from his predecessor Joe Biden’s policies, said Prof Cui.
Assistant Professor Dylan Loh, a Chinese foreign policy expert at Nanyang Technological University (NTU), told The Straits Times that the Trump-Zelensky exchange further reinforces the view that Mr Trump is “unpredictable, volatile and a disrupting force”.
Noting that China has, by and large, been on the sidelines of the war in Ukraine and taking a relatively passive approach, Prof Loh said: “I don’t think Beijing has to do much. After all, why interrupt when your rival is, in the eyes of many, engaging in self-harm?”
While there has been no official response from Beijing on the White House spat, there certainly has been chatter among Chinese observers.
Chairman Rabbit, the pen name of Mr Ren Yi, the Harvard-educated grandson of a prominent Chinese politician who has a massive following, wrote in a WeChat post on March 1 that Mr Zelensky’s fundamental mistake was failing to read the room and adjust his approach to Mr Trump, which led to a disastrous confrontation.
He said Mr Zelensky disregarded the US’ America First interests by focusing on Ukraine’s needs rather than how Ukraine could benefit the US economy, and irked Mr Trump by correcting him publicly and appearing overly self-righteous.
Mockingly, the post continued: “The primary task moving forward is to figure out how to please Emperor Trump? How to satisfy Emperor Trump? How to eliminate Emperor Trump’s doubts? Begin by expressing overwhelming gratitude – thank God for choosing Trump, calling it Ukraine’s great fortune. Then surround Trump with endless flattery, with no upper limit. Seize every opportunity and occasion to praise him as a great president.”
The Cow Plays Piano WeChat account, which has links to Chinese state media outlet Xinhua, wrote in a widely read post on March 2: “Some are celebrating. Others are in despair. But America has indeed changed and the world is feeling the shockwaves.”
The post also noted that while understanding English is useful for foreign leaders, understanding too much English may not always be beneficial. It suggested that if a translator had been present to refine and soften the conversation, the exchange might not have escalated so quickly.
“These are all lessons. But beyond the lessons, the world has witnessed the blatant arrogance and bias of a superpower,” it concluded.
To mock the heated exchange, Chinese netizens used a video clip from the 2012 Hong Kong film Cold War and dubbed over its lead characters, played by Aaron Kwok and Tony Leung, squabbling over money borrowed and owed. This was reposted by Chinese state media outlet Global Times on WeChat.
In the light of the spat, analysts said a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr Trump – in which Mr Trump has expressed interest – in 2025 is possible, but the likelihood is low, as the US might be preoccupied with issues such as Ukraine, and China would want to dictate the terms of the meeting.
NTU’s Prof Loh said he does not expect the Trump-Zelensky incident to directly affect the chances of such a meeting, as any potential summit would be “considered on its own terms”.
“Certainly China will want to control the location, proceedings, format and whether (the meeting) is open to the media,” he added.
Beijing Foreign Studies University’s Prof Cui said that before any such meeting takes place, policy teams on both sides must first establish a clear direction.
“Chinese diplomacy typically requires that high-level meetings have a fundamental consensus and produce tangible outcomes. If a meeting occurs with unresolved tensions and contradictions, it would not align with China’s expectations.”
- Michelle Ng is China correspondent at The Straits Times. She is interested in Chinese foreign policies, property trends, demographics, education and rural issues.
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