Could cheaper turkeys trim costs for Christmas dinner? What to expect – National

Those hoping to save on their Christmas dinner can expect some slightly lower prices compared to recent years, especially with turkey, though much will depend on what you plan to lay on your dinner table.

Inflation has dropped and some food prices with it compared to recent years. Among the food that could see some relief compared to just last year is the centrepiece of many Christmas dinners: the turkey.

An analysis of data available from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada shows the cost per kilogram of fresh turkey in the month of November — the most recent available data — was about $5.45 or a 39 per cent drop from the $8.93 per kg in 2023.

“So if you look at turkey, probably over the last five years it went up 15 to 20 per cent, which is what everything went up and more, but in the past year they’ve actually come down,” Mike von Massow, professor of food economics at the University of Guelph, said in an interview.

“That’s going to be about availability.”

Global News looked at the average monthly retail prices of some Christmas staples, using data from Statistics Canada and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, to get a flavour of how prices for mainstays now compare to prices over the last five years.

That assessment looked at food amounts for a gathering of eight to 10 people, though prices will vary depending on city and store.

For this analysis, we looked at the prices of turkey, potatoes, carrots, green beans, bread — including to try to calculate the cost of stuffing — and wine. With the exception of turkey, most costs looked at how they priced in October as available data for December 2024 has not been made available for all items.

This was then compared to prices for the same month of previous years for a year-over-year look.

On average, those aforementioned base ingredients for a typical Christmas dinner could cost between $59.69 and $65.84 this year. That’s compared to about $81.46 in 2023, and about $61.37 in 2019.

At the centrepiece of many Christmas dinners is a turkey, and for an average six-kilogram or 13-pound bird, prices in October this year were around $32.70.

That’s a stark drop from almost $53.58 the same time one year ago or $49.80 in 2021.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada does not have available data of turkey prices for December of this year for comparison, but closer to Christmas last year the price was about $34.20, which may suggest buying closer to Christmas instead of in advance could help save money.

If you have turkey, stuffing is typically a must.

Those craving that popular side dish are looking at likely paying about $10.23 in total if they want to make it. The cost of onions and butter are higher than a year ago — 170 grams of butter was around $1.48 in 2019, up each subsequent year to $1.61, $1.78, $2.13, $2.29 and this year, $2.14, while the cost of onions stands at $1.73 compared to $1.33 in 2019, Consumer Prince Index data shows.

The drop in bread and celery prices help even it out slightly.

Prices for a loaf of bread, about 675 grams, were $2.84 in 2019, then went to $2.93, $2.95, $3.39, $3.63 and now $$3.45. For celery, prices in 2019 were $2.17 then $$2.27, $2.32, $2.43, $2.96 and now $2.91.

In comparison, if you’re looking for boxed stuffing some stores have packaging for as low as $4 for two boxes, which would be about enough for 10 people.

Whether mashed, baked, roasted or scalloped, potatoes are also popular at the table. If that’s the plan, though, you’re looking at $4.92 for a kilogram (about two pounds) this year, a change from $4.99 in 2023, $4.68 in 2022, $4.20 in 2021, $3.95 in 2020 and $4.13 in 2019.

If you want enough to make mashed potatoes for 10 people you might need closer to 2.25 kilograms, which comes to about $11.07, a jump from $9.29 in 2019.

When it comes to vegetables, von Massow added those looking to save money may want to consider looking more towards those that are domestically grown and those that are more seasonal.

“We will probably have carrots which are domestic and we’ll probably have green beans which are not, and so we might pay a little bit more than we did last year for the vegetables,” von Massow said.

Carrots, for example, are approximately $3.12 for about three pounds or six cups, an increase from the $2.60 seen in 2019 but down from the $3.68 last year.

With green beans,  some are grown here in Canada but others are imported into the country. StatCan data shows prices are up from $4.26 in 2019 to $5.27 this year.

Individual pricing data for wine, a beverage of choice at some Christmas dinners, is unavailable but the percentage change in its price was provided to Global News by Statistics Canada.

That data, also available through the Consumer Price Index, shows between November 2021 and this year the overall percentage change in prices of wine purchased from stores has risen by 11.6 per cent.

However, it’s only increased by 0.7 per cent this year compared to a year ago.

“The truth is the only thing that we can predict about food prices is that they will get more unpredictable,” von Massow said.

This, he said, is due to various facts ranging from the war in Ukraine which caused higher grain prices — though that’s seen a drop in the two years since — or bad Mediterranean yields which led to high olive oil prices that are also on the decline.

Von Massow says as Canadians head out to put together their Christmas dinners, it’s wise to stay flexible. If it’s easier to make it yourself, do so but if it might be better to go with a canned option like cranberry sauce — that’s an option, too.

“The biggest thing we should be doing is paying attention to prices and looking at that very small per-unit price,” he said.

“It is a real opportunity to make sure you’re getting the best possible meal.”