Commanders’ keys vs. Jaguars: Start fast, be ready for surprises

Here are some things to watch as Washington opens the season against the Jaguars at FedEx Field on Sunday (1 p.m. kickoff):

Wentz begins a new era. Washington starts anew, with a new name and quarterback. The team traded for Wentz in March with the hope he would take the offense to the next level and perhaps provide stability after years of changing starters. Coach Ron Rivera and his staff believe he has the arm strength, size, and rapport with teammates to lead the Commanders back to the playoffs. The question still is whether he can be consistent.

How best to evaluate Carson Wentz? These analytics offer insight.

Start fast and clean up third downs. The Commanders struggled early in games and on third downs in 2021. Those issues continued in the preseason. The Commanders were stout defensively on first and second downs in the preseason, but they allowed opponents to convert 51 percent of their third downs, the worst rate in the league.

Rivera has stressed the need for players to stay disciplined in their roles, for the defensive line to stay in their rush lanes and set the edge, and for the front five to stay in sync with the back end.

If the defense can get off the field, Washington’s offense will have more time, a necessity if the Wentz-led group hopes to finish more drives. Last year, Washington had the third-worst red-zone scoring efficiency, at 18.8 percent, in the first quarter. But in the last three quarters of games last year, Washington ranked sixth, with a 67.6 percent red-zone scoring rate.

Washington’s defense will be without two key players. Defensive end Chase Young is on the physically unable to perform list through at least Week 4 as he recovers from an ACL injury, but perhaps the more significant blow to Washington’s defense is the loss of safety Kam Curl. Curl recently suffered a thumb injury that required surgery, and he was ruled out for the opener, leaving a void in the secondary. A seventh-round pick out of Arkansas in 2020, Curl quickly emerged as a staple of the defense because of his versatility; he can play both safety spots, can move in the slot, play outside, drop down as a hybrid linebacker and blitz.

To compensate for his absence, the Commanders might take a committee approach, with Jeremy Reaves, Darrick Forrest and Percy Butler likely to see added time. Rivera cited Forrest as a player who took a leap in camp this year, and he is one of the team’s most physical players on the back end.

“He’s a downhill player. He’s very active. He plays with his eyes pretty well. He sees a lot. I like his ability to run. He’s got good quickness. He’s quick in a small area, confined area. And he can turn and run. I think using his skill set, using Percy’s skill set, using Reaves’s skill set, we have a combination of guys that can go in and play.”

The scouting report on Jacksonville is unclear. Pederson isn’t the only newcomer to the Jaguars. Mike Caldwell is first-year defensive coordinator and Press Taylor is in his first season of coordinating the offense. The team signed high-priced weapons, including wide receiver Christian Kirk and Scherff, a lineman who should enhance an offense centered on young quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

Washington is anticipating surprises.

“You have to look at a lot of different things,” Rivera said. “You have to look at the past, and their associations with particular teams. So it’s a lot of work, it really is, especially on the defensive side. I think watching what Jack and the staff has done is solid. … I like to feel we have a pretty decent handle, but there’s always the unexpected, though. And I’d like to say with Doug, I think there will be something a little unexpected.”

Wentz is well-versed in the coaching style of Pederson and Taylor from their years together in Philly. His experience in their offense should offer Washington plenty of clues.

Washington’s run defense could be tested early and often. In five of his eight seasons as a coach, dating back to his days as Kansas City’s offensive coordinator, Pederson’s teams have ranked among the top five in the league in rushing yards per attempt. This year, the Jaguars get James Robinson back from an Achilles’ tendon injury, and he’s expected to take on a heavy workload against the Commanders. In 2020, before he was injured, James recorded the most scrimmage yards (1,414) and second-most rushing yards (1,070) by an undrafted rookie in NFL history.

“I’ve been in situations like this, too, where you want to go in and you want to control the pace of play with a guy like James,” Pederson told reporters in Jacksonville this week. “At the same time, if he’s feeling good and there hasn’t been any setbacks or anything, then you just go and you just roll with it.”

Injury report: Curl did not practice all week and was the only player ruled out Friday for the opener. Tight ends Logan Thomas (knee) and Cole Turner (hamstring) are questionable. Thomas indicated that his first game back from injury would be either against the Jaguars or in Week 2 against the Lions.

The Jaguars listed defensive lineman Folorunso Fatukasi as questionable because of a calf injury, but the rest of their roster is good to go.