After Vietnam and the United States upgraded their relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in September 2023, China swiftly responded to avoid losing strategic influence in Hanoi. Three months later, President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Vietnam – and this week, he returned with what is arguably the most ceremonious and politically significant diplomatic program in the recent history of bilateral ties.
The visit was accompanied by unprecedented honors: President Luong Cuong personally welcomed Xi at the airport on April 14, while Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh bid him farewell upon departure the following day. At the airport, the Chinese leader was also greeted with a special dance performed by 54 young girls representing all 54 of Vietnam’s ethnic groups.
Even more notable was the scope and intensity of the political engagement. Xi held separate talks with Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) General Secretary To Lam and President Luong Cuong, as well as two meetings in name, but conducted in the format of full-fledged talks, with the prime minister and the chairman of the National Assembly. These sessions involved high-ranking delegations from both sides, reflecting the broad institutional coordination between the two political systems. During those talks and meetings, Vietnamese leaders used some of the strongest language in recent years to describe the China–Vietnam relationship, stating that “developing ties with China is a strategic choice and top priority for Vietnam” and that “Vietnam consistently views strengthening relations with China as an objective necessity and a strategic choice.”
On the sidelines, senior Chinese Communist Party officials also met separately with the standing secretary of the CPV and chairman of the Vietnam Fatherland Front. These engagements show that China is pursuing a comprehensive diplomatic strategy that extends well beyond high-level state visits.
Notably, China has once again begun emphasizing the 1950s-era slogan “comrades and brothers” to characterize its relationship with Vietnam. While this phrase was reintroduced by Xi during his 2023 trip to Hanoi, it was invoked with greater frequency and emphasis during last week’s visit, signaling Beijing’s intent to revive the ideological foundations of the bilateral relationship. For more than three decades since normalization in the 1990s, China had favored the more restrained phrase “dong chi khong phai dong minh” (comrades but not allies), reflecting its strategic caution. The renewed emphasis on “brothers” marks a deliberate effort by Beijing to pull Vietnam more closely into its political orbit amid intensifying U.S.–China rivalry.
The September 2023 upgrade in U.S.–Vietnam ties was clearly a strategic shock that prompted a rapid Chinese response. Just three months later, Xi traveled to Hanoi to raise Vietnam–China relations to a new level: a “Community of Shared Future” – a designation that ranks second in China’s five-tier diplomatic hierarchy.
This level is lower than China’s relationship with Russia, Pakistan, and North Korea and may even be lower than its relationship with Cambodia, which is characterized as a “relationship of shared destiny” and an “ironclad friend.” Cambodia is also a stop on Xi’s current tour, and China completed the upgrade of the Ream Naval Base earlier this month, raising regional concerns over its potential use for military operations in the South China Sea. Xi is expected to donate two naval vessels to Cambodia during the upcoming visit.
Each time China upgrades its ties with Vietnam, it raises concerns that Hanoi may be drawn into a strategic confrontation with the United States. This time, U.S. President Donald Trump has already voiced his concern, suggesting that Hanoi is being pulled into China’s efforts to “screw the United States of America.” History shows that leaning too far toward any great power, or becoming deeply entrenched in a single sphere of influence, has often come at a long-term cost to Vietnam’s strategic autonomy and development.
This is especially important as Vietnam prepares for tariff negotiations with the U.S. and faces the threat of high import duties that could severely affect not only its exports but its entire economy.
In today’s increasingly polarized world, Vietnam must remain vigilant. Unprecedented diplomatic ceremonies, friendly rhetoric, and dozens of signed agreements must not obscure the reality: Vietnam must steadfastly pursue an independent, self-reliant, multi-directional and balanced foreign policy that serves its long-term national interests. No relationship – whether with the U.S. or China – should be allowed to erode Vietnam’s strategic decision-making space or reduce its international agency.
