During the first half of 2025, a new record was set for the number of deaths caused by climate and weather disasters. Can you guess what that record was? [emphasis, links added]
If you read left-wing media sources and believe anything they say, you might think that the recent record has something to do with a large and growing number of deaths.
Recent articles by CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times, and CBS News all explicitly claim that climate change is making weather events “deadlier,” leading to an increasing number of deaths, or some variation of that same message.
I’m sure if you checked thirty such “mainstream” news sources over the past year, all thirty of which would have pieces parroting that same narrative.
Therefore, you might be surprised by the actual record: the first six months of 2025 (January to June) have seen the lowest number of deaths attributed to climate and weather disasters compared to any first half-year of this century.
Just curious if you’ve seen that information reported in any source other than here? I came across the information at Roger Pielke, Jr.’s Honest Broker Substack. He, in turn, cites the Global Catastrophe Recap for the first half of 2025 issued by insurance broker Aon and the EM-DAT database of catastrophe losses.
But before getting to the details, let’s consider what you might believe if all you read or see is the usual “mainstream” sources:
- From MSNBC, July 9, “How climate change is making natural disasters deadlier”: “At least 119 are dead and over 170 people are still missing after the catastrophic flooding in Texas. NBC News’ Jay Gray and The Kerry County Lead Editor and Publisher Louis Amestoy share the latest updates from Kerrville, Texas, and University of Pennsylvania Presidential Distinguished Professor Michael Mann joins Chris Jansing to discuss the impact of climate change on natural disasters.”
- From CNN, July 9, “Extreme heat is a killer. A recent heat wave shows how much more deadly it’s becoming: “Extreme heat is a killer and its impact is becoming far, far deadlier as the human-caused climate crisis supercharges temperatures. . . .”
- From CBS News, March 18, “World climate report warns of growing risks to lives, economy and planet”: “A new report from the World Meteorological Organization delivers a stark warning: climate change is accelerating, with some impacts now irreversible for centuries. The State of the Global Climate report confirms global temperatures, greenhouse gas emissions, and sea levels all reached record highs in 2024.”
- From the New York Times, October 31, 2024, “Climate Change Is Making Disasters Deadlier. Here’s How Much.” “Two weeks before world leaders meet to debate the climate crisis, a report released on Thursday shows the 10 deadliest extreme weather events in the past two decades were made worse by burning fossil fuels.”
So let’s now look at the actual data on deaths from climate and weather disasters during the 25 years since 2000, and specifically focusing on the first half of each year.
The following statement (quoted by Pielke) appears in the Executive Summary of the Aon report:
At least 7,700 people were killed due to natural disasters during the first half of 2025, which is well below the 21st-century average of 37,250. The majority of the deaths (5,456) occurred as a result of the earthquake in Myanmar.
An earthquake is not a climate or weather disaster. Take out those 5,456 deaths from the Myanmar earthquake, and you have only 2,244 deaths left that could fall in the climate or weather category.
How does that compare to other recent years?
Pielke goes over to the EM-DAT database, where he finds data for deaths from weather and climate-related disasters for each of the years from 2000 to 2024.
Here is the chart he compiles for January to June of each year:
Those ~2,200 deaths from climate- and weather-related disasters this year are the lowest in the comparable period of the 26 years in question. The second-lowest is 2009 at about 2,600.
Also obvious is that the number of deaths is hugely dominated by major disasters that have occurred in a few years, particularly 2008, 2010, and 2022. But with or without those outlying years, there is no obvious trend up or down in the annual number of deaths from these causes.
So, 2025 is clearly the record holder for the fewest first-half-of-the-year climate/weather-disaster deaths in the 21st century.
But how about before that? Pielke does not have comparable data for the comparison. However, before modern weather reporting and disaster warnings, deaths from climate and weather disasters were generally much greater than they are today.
Drawing on other sources, he finds fairly rough estimates of around 50,000,000 deaths from climate and weather disasters in the decade of the 1870s (that would be 5,000,000 per year), 5,000,000 in the 1920s (500,000 per year), and 500,000 as recently as the 1970s (50,000 per year).
The generally much greater levels of deaths in prior decades lead Pielke to the following assertion:
I’d go so far as to suggest that it is likely that the first half of 2025 has seen the fewest deaths related to extreme weather of any half year in recorded human history.
It’s not possible to prove that assertion definitively, but it is very likely correct.
The constant efforts of the media to scare people out of their wits on this subject are, frankly, despicable.
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