Oregon on Friday reported 10 COVID-19 deaths and 1,517 new known cases, continuing a very short but concerning rise in cases over the past few days. That comes amid an Oregon Health & Science University forecast that says more Oregonians are once again engaging in riskier behaviors that promote viral spread.
In his most recent COVID-19 forecast Thursday, OHSU data scientist Peter Graven says fatigue over public health safety measures is once again setting in. Although mask usage is still holding steady at about 50% for unvaccinated people and 90% for vaccinated people, he’s seen slight upticks in riskier viral behaviors, such as dining in at restaurants and bars and socializing indoors with people outside one’s household. Graven thinks the small increase in new infections over the past few days is likely due to that fatigue.
Although Graven’s forecast doesn’t try to estimate the number of new infections in coming weeks and months, it predicts they will decline and so will hospitalized COVID-19 patients. But Graven anticipates that those declines will be slower than previously expected because the public is acting less cautiously.
Friday, hospitalizations stood at 537, less than half of the number from early September. Graven’s forecast predicts hospitalizations won’t drop below 400 until around Thanksgiving.
Graven said the level of precautions many people are taking now is similar to the level in July, when Oregon had just re-opened and the delta variant hadn’t hit the state hard yet.
“Normally that would cause us to have a surge, but because we have such high immunity levels all it really ends up doing is slowing down the …decrease,” Graven said. That’s because more people are vaccinated and more have natural immunity, he said.
“It’s basically pretty good news,” Graven said. The one caveat? If a new, more contagious or vaccine-resistant variant takes root in Oregon, cases could once again spike, he said.
Booster shots: The federal government is now recommending booster shots for certain groups of people who received any of the three vaccines currently available in the United States.
Friday, the Western States Scientific Safety Review Workgroup announced its support for recommendations made Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for booster shots of Moderna and Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccines. Pfizer-BioNTech boosters had previously been approved.
People who’ve received two shots of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines are now eligible for third shots if it has been at least six months since their second shots and they are 65 years or older, an adult living in a long-term care facility, an adult with underlying medical conditions or an adult who works or lives in high-risk settings. That includes teachers, jail employees and bus drivers.
Any adult who received the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine more than two months ago also should get a booster shot, the CDC said.
Where the new cases are by county: Baker (10), Benton (28), Clackamas (119), Clatsop (12), Columbia (29), Coos (25), Crook (44), Curry (6), Deschutes (126), Douglas (53), Gilliam (1), Harney (2), Hood River (8), Jackson (80), Jefferson (36), Josephine (36), Klamath (54), Lake (15), Lane (120), Lincoln (19), Linn (134), Malheur (20), Marion (118), Morrow (6), Multnomah (153), Polk (37), Sherman (2), Tillamook (5), Umatilla (42), Union (11), Wasco (14), Washington (110), Wheeler (1) and Yamhill (41).
Deaths: A 96-year-old Washington County man tested positive Oct. 15 and died Oct. 19. Officials were still confirming the location of his death.
A 50-year-old Multnomah County woman tested positive Aug. 17 and died Sept. 1. Officials hadn’t yet confirmed the location of her death.
An 81-year-old Multnomah County man tested positive Sept. 12 and died Sept. 24 at Providence Portland Medical Center.
A 72-year-old Klamath County man tested positive Oct. 12 and died Oct. 20 at Sky Lakes Medical Center.
A 69-year-old Harney County man tested positive Oct. 17 and died Oct. 20 at Harney District Hospital.
A 70-year-old Washington County man tested positive Oct. 2 and died Oct. 16 at OHSU Hillsboro Medical Center.
A 71-year-old Multnomah County woman tested positive Aug. 9 and died Oct. 16 at Legacy Good Samaritan Medical Center.
An 86-year-old Marion County man tested positive Oct. 18 and died Oct. 20 at Salem Hospital.
A 52-year-old Linn County man tested positive Sept. 28 and died Oct. 21 at Good Samaritan Regional Medical Center.
A 78-year-old Malheur County man tested positive Oct. 8 and died Oct. 20 at St. Alphonsus Regional Medical Center in Idaho.
Officials said half of the people who died had underlying medical conditions and the status of the other half isn’t yet known.
Hospitalizations: Officials said 537 patients confirmed to have COVID-19 were hospitalized Friday, which is 30 fewer than on Thursday. Patients in intensive care unit beds decreased by five, to 128 on Friday.
Vaccines: 2,737 people have been newly vaccinated since Thursday, officials said.
Since it began: Oregon has reported 357,526 new confirmed or presumed infections and 4,284 deaths, noting that one previously reported death was of someone from out-of-state. Oregon’s numbers are among the lowest per capita numbers in the nation. To date, the state has reported 5,384,494 vaccine doses administered, fully vaccinating 2,583,129 people and partially vaccinating 213,202 people.
To see more data and trends, visit https://projects.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/
— Aimee Green; agreen@oregonian.com; @o_aimee