Around 65,000 people in England are catching Covid-19 each day but the outbreak is no longer shrinking, according to analysts tracking the second wave. 

London-based Lane Clark and Peacock (LCP) — a consultancy firm that uses official data to estimate daily infections across the country — predicted that cases plunged to 62,552 on January 14. 

But the team, who usually crunch numbers for the football industry to help talent spotters or the energy sector to work out the profitability of a power plant, believe cases have increased since January 14, rising to 64,966 on January 17, the most recent day figures are available for.

The analysts have created an interactive map based on their estimates, allowing users to see a detailed breakdown of exactly how the outbreak has changed in every authority across England.

Official Department of Health data — which tracks confirmed cases — suggests Britain’s outbreak has shrunk every day for almost a fortnight. 

To use the Lane Clark and Peacock map visit the dedicated Covid Tracker website.

London-based Lane Clark and Peacock (LCP) — a consultancy firm that uses official data to estimate daily infections across the country — predicted that cases plunged to 62,552 on January 14

The LPC model (pictured) is the only one to show daily cases have plateaued in the past week

Experts say the tough Tier Four restrictions were helping to curb transmission across swathes of the country but that England’s third national lockdown helped drive down cases even further. 

The LPC model is the only one to show daily cases have plateaued in the past week.

The team’s estimates do not feed into No10’s advisory panel SAGE, unlike projections from other scientists tracking the growth of the second wave.

Its projections are based on Public Health England data which reflects the number of confirmed cases from symptomatic people who get tested. 

On January 5, the day that England’s third lockdown started, 58,000 people tested positive through official channels.  

But the PHE figure is never truly reflective of the daily situation because one in three infected people will never develop a cough, fever or a change or loss in their sense of smell or taste.  

In an attempt to understand the true scale of the crisis, LCP also used data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). 

The ONS carries out a weekly surveillance study to work out the prevalence of the virus in the community. 

The ONS, however, hasn’t estimated the number of daily cases occurring in England since November because of an issue with data from one of their laboratories. 

LCP combine both the PHE daily data with the ONS data, which can give a sense of how many people are infected but not getting tested, to give a ‘more rounded estimate of current new infection rates’.   

Dr Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, the head of Lane Clark and Peacock’s Health Analytics team and also an epidemiologist and expert in public health, told MailOnline the model is intended to be as up-to-date as the PHE data while as comprehensive as the ONS approach.  

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